trade what you see wednesday, page-8

What did Buymax write?

SPX dipped below 1100. Went a little too late for me, got in at 1113 after it topped at 1118/1119.

With the SPX in its 1075 - 1105 band (barring 2/3 days it stayed between 1115 and the sharp spike to 1130, and the few days it traded below 1075 down to 1040s) its been in that band for most of 3 weeks now.

Which means a few things...

a) XJO is fairly priced at the moment at 4500 based on that band (just using correlation over averages)
b) Hang Seng is about 800 points over priced.
c) AUD is about 200 pips over.
d) DAX is about 1209194736582343 points overpriced, but we wont worry about that because of the governmental shennanigans in prohibiting shorts in its banks.
e) Footsie is about 100 points overpriced
f) EUR/USD is fair value at mid 122s

(Bear in mind I'm just going along the timeframes which I started trading all these instruments, which is the week prior to the Friday jobs crunch, where the SPX was trading between 1105 and 1095, threatening to break out and failing each time).

You can draw conclusions from the above that -

a) The RSPT situation has offset the yuan revaluation
b) Hang Seng has a 5% premium built in over that period from yuan devaluation (Yuan goes down, HKD goes up??)
c) Yuan's currency related moves will have impact on Australian exports in the shorter term
d) Germans are in their own world
e) Same as Australia, without the RSPT overhang - 100 points is a fair premium for the yuan story
f) EUR/USD has got nothing to do with yuan

It all makes sense, I think!!!

On other fronts:-

Moodys came out warning on Aussie banks, citing need to raise up to 170b in next 12 months, specifically WBC.

Talbots demise means the family will re-evaluate all its investments. Karoon Gas is the highest market capitalisation and index affecting one.

Weaker housing data last night in the US shows signs of double dip in the States?

Jabar Bank to list in Jakarta composite today. Funny how in today's papers there is a write up on emerging markets focusing on Jakarta's 22% YTD increase. Time to short the index methinks.