Updated my analysis as we come into the quarterly blackout period (think today will be the last trading day)
a few things that stand out
- buyback for the quarter has been accretive if we close above $6.55
- buyback has returned 25c / share (would i prefer this as a dividend - prob not at these prices)
- impact on coal reservation included
- we should still have around $2bn in cash at the bank fully tax paid after q1-3 tax bill of approximately $1bn paid (nice amount of franking credits)
- if we receive another 32c dividend in q4 the buyback has saved us $6m in cost
- earnings per share of around 47c for the quarter
overall we are in great shape but still have a massive tax-paid war chest, I have added deeply with the decline in price still averaging up but happy to have had some $2.5 per share already returned to me through buybacks and dividends, I'm looking forward to next 12 months when all my capital would have been returned.
I still think coal will be needed (and profitable) going forward
(20min delay)