This was always a favourite for our cranky downrampers
..
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-new-criterion-small-cap-stocks-that-tap-the-disaster-zeitgeistIn September 2019, IPL commenced the strategic review of the Incitec Pivot Fertilisers business with three possible outcomes envisaged – sale, demerger, or retain and invest.
So, (as mentioned below) there was a bit of scuttlebutt around in early 2020 that
NeuRizer, formally Leigh Creek Energy had made a bid for the IPL Fertiliser division. I believe the offer was somewhere north of $700 million, and could have involved other parties (Macquarie or Barrenjoey equivalents). Anyway, I remember there were unverified leaks that found there way onto this forum that suggested that the CEO could have held the casting vote on the Board, it was a very close call allegedly..
Anyway, 21 April 2020, the company decided to retain Incitec Pivot Fertilisers and focus on its core operations 'to be an industry leader in the supply of fertilisers and services to Australian agriculture'.
It didn't take long for the cracks to appear, on 8 November 2021, IPL said it will be ceasing manufacturing operations at Gibson Island at the end of the current natural gas feedstock supply arrangements which expire at the end of December 2022. The reason being because it 'has been unable
to secure an economically viable long-term gas supply'.
Then Russia invaded the Ukraine and the price of fertiliser and gas went through the roof, as did IPL revenue, Ms Johns looked like a rock star, and perhaps, the inevitable was delayed..
Well guess what, on 23 May 2022, the structural separation was on the cards, and on 6 June 2023, Jeanne Johns has finally fallen on her sword. Last week the CEO designate of Incitec Pivot fertiliser, Christine Corbett also has quit..
You'd think if NRZ can get the project funding, this could be the beginning of the end for IPL's fertiliser division. How long could expensive imports compete against home-grown products with fixed priced gas as feedstock at circa $1 G/J with no supply issues.?? If only we didn't have the perennial overhang from the US, and own goals such as MD's selling their shares to pay tax
.. This will all come to an end in my opinion, and the share price shackles should be released..
Anyway, there could be some cheap assets on the market in the near future, and I'd say they'd be a lot cheaper than they were in 2020!! interesting times.
(20min delay)