prophetic article, page-30

Hi FOTH,

If it is less than 200,000 patients in the US, then it might be an orphan market. The problem is that Fuzeon is already approved as salvage treatment in those patients, which means orphan status doesn't apply.

The point being that you would face a full scale trial against Fuzeon to get the indication, which as you have stated is small and probably the reason the pharmas weren't interested in partnering.

From what I can tell, ATC's only real shot is to find an unmet (not just poorly met) need among HIV patients that it can satisfy that fits the rest of the orphan criteria. The issues then become pricing and off-label use to determine whether it is worth going forward with the drug.

I know nothing about off-label use in the area of HIV, so I won't comment on that. Pricing isn't likely to be huge though given the precedents. Probably a tough ask.

For what it is worth, I do believe that investors got taken for a ride by Avexa. Don't worry about that. I have been taken for a ride many times before by other companies and will almost certainly be taken for a ride again!

Bob