NVX 3.25% 59.5¢ novonix limited

Ann: Cleansing Notice Issue of Unsecured Convertible Notes, page-12

  1. 400 Posts.
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    Are some of you agreeing with the forecast of $50 in 3-5 years because you think that's realistic...
    Or are you agreeing with it because Kokoro disagreed with it, and you can't be seen to agree with something Kokoro said?

    Without further dilution it's $25B (actually $26B as of today?). Appreciate how big that number is.
    I'm sure the sensible bulls also think that number in 3-5 years is a bit much.

    Coincidentally today I posted about this exact kind of thing on a different stock that I own, which in my view has some very farfetched valuations being shared around. In a nutshell, the most popular and fun estimates are usually the estimates that show the highest prices. Those high estimates are invariably based on "What price is theoretically possible if everything goes perfectly, in every way". Idk about you but I feel more comfortable accepting some things won't go perfectly.

    Wild estimates often start with a reasonable forecast, but then people layer on the speculation, assume all of it can happen, which creates pathways to even more speculation and everyone is happy because the number goes up (If we assume A happens, then B can happen. If we assume B happens, then C can happen, etc). Eventually you end up with huge numbers that are theoretically possible, but that's about all they're good for.

    Sure who knows maybe $50 will happen... but like, come on. Why are people acting like its a foregone conclusion. That's a risky headspace.
    Last edited by JSSF: 26/06/23
 
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