Ann: Lending and Payments Volumes Update, page-37

Let's try to estimate the June 4C:
- Lending: Amount drawn from DW went from $11mio to $13mio. Let's use $12mio average across 3 months. That implies $13.33 portfolio and gross revenues of $0.7mio for that quarter. Cost of fund using 10% would be $0.3mio. They also had a residual position on balance sheet, for $0.7mio. Assuming the same return of 21%, that's another $0.04mio at no cost.
- Payments: Based on the first 2 months of this quarter, I'll assume $45mio for the quarter. Total guess here, but I will use 1% fee on this and no costs. So that's $0.45mio.
- Saas: Only known info is about the Capricorn trial, and I will be optimistic here, assuming the 2 payments will make it this quarter. That's $0.3mio in the bank.
- Total top line revenues: $1.49mio, and $1.19mio net of cost of funds.
- Operational costs: I will assume they have increased by the fee paid for CR, so $2.6mio (from prior quarters), plus 6% x $3.9mio, so total $2.83mio.
- Net result is down $1.64mio.
- Cash position: $4.7+$3.9-$1.64-$0.2 (DW first loss)= $6.76mio.
- Runway = $6.76mio / $1.64 = 4.1 quarters.
Let's see if I am anywhere close! It is likely to be wrong, but the point of this is then to go back and understand why. If the actual result is close, my conclusions would be:
- Payment revenues uplift is very welcome and the company should do a far better job at reporting the associated revenues.
- Saas revenues are not recurring, absent an announcement about Capricorn (which then would make much of this analysis possibly obsolete...).
- With the $ in the bank, there is a path from here towards CF+. It's a tough one though would target something like $40mio lending book and 30% payment volumes increase QoQ. This is what I'd like to hear from the company, quantified targets in terms of each of their revenue streams.
- It would be good to know whether we can expect another R&D refund in FY24.