Thought I would give my financial blogging a miss for a while
We have gone into Protected Industrial Action at work over our EBA wage claim and we even made the papers.
So, meetings, phone calls, more meetings and lots of nervous colleagues as we forge ahead.
Hopefully, it will be resolved soon.
I have been checking in as much as possible, yes lurking, but the forum hasn't been in the best head space lately.
Arguments, emotional insanity, erratic behaviour, character assassinations in a real negative, downward spiral..almost as much as our SP!
We have talked about the human psyche before, and what these manipulative forces do on a daily basis to push us to the limits, to push us to the edge...to sell. And they are...more so than ever...and many are falling straight into their trap...even spme LTH's.
The shortcomings in our SP, left field CR's, EGM's, EOFY portfolio re balances, along with our stunted news flow have certainly not helped and dragged the sentiment to new lows. It happens time and time again...SP up, everybody happy and on the Kraken, SP down, all the keyboard warriors come out and the forum turns on itself. Winter is coming, SP is stale and will never move up, too many shares, too many shorts...it goes on and on... Just take today's trading- LTR down, PMT down, SYA down,CXO even, PLS even. Its just the markets....point is, its not just us.
It's the big boys who move the SP...and they are accumulating SYA at the moment, as cheaply as possible. Accumulating because retail is selling.... Accumulating while the sentiment is rock bottom... The same happened when we were stuck at 12/13 for months, same sentiment, same disbelief, I bought then too, but not enough, and I regret that....and then it ran. And when it runs, it goes before you know it....
The mind games have well and truely worked....with SYA's shortcomings certainly helping feed the trolls. High retail stocks....the gift that keeps on giving
In general shareholder terms, if you are not happy with a stock, sell it and move on. Concentrate your energy, time and research somewhere else...its not that hard, just move on. The Crucifixion of the BOD , the LTH's and the believers is completely over the top.
By all means, voice your concerns to the company, engage in robust debate on the forum, but do it constructively and with respect.
The most disappointing aspect of this situation, is the loss of faith in the fundamentals. Fundamentals which have come so far from so little. We certainly are in the orphan period, as defined on the Lassonde curve, I do refer to it from time to time. Not only are we in the orphan period, but we are lagging where traditionally we should be, up around the operating mine area. We need to show revenue, and show it very soon.
Our other major handbrake is the current market valuation of half our product at 900/t, or 810/t, or whatever crap price it will be under the existing offtake. A tangible set of metrics that can be scrutinized and examined and can be added to our bottom line.
And it is still quite obvious that our current valuation is reflective of only 113kt at 900, nothing else, and even then is still carrying a risk discount. No Moblan, no Carbonate, No Authier, no WA, no NAL/Vallee superpit, no 250kt+ spod...nothing else.
The fundamentals are and remain through the roof. The future direction is impressive...almost unbelievable. And I am not going to sift through them all and list them again.
The closest catalyst, is of course the next offtake and the shipment of our first product in the next 2-4 weeks. Commissioning and ramp up, from all accounts is going very well. And I still stand by my August nameplate call.
SB has brought up his southern hub strategy which he has been calling for some time, and I for one fully back this theory and see it as a logical step for us. We may also see further expansion West. Sayona does love these left field announcements. Amoss, from what I can find out, is still a possibility, and may be another left field announcement which catches the market off guard..
It seems quite obvious, the market wants to value Sayona in absolute terms, not hearsay and verbals.
As for the SP, I cant predict it, except expect groundhog day again tomorrow.....and now that I have said that it will probably run....so who bloody knpws??? However, in my opinion, my expectation is positive movement with our next offtake and shipment. It should coincide with a strengthening macro, shorts remaining low and a robust lithium price....and all this should happen in the new tax year.The chart is coiling up, range-bound and is building to an eventual break out.
Patience, is easier said than done. This stock, is one of the ALL time patience testers. And I am just as frustrated as the next guy, believe me. They say the night is darkest before the dawn, and it has been a long, long night...its gone on for months. Like many here, I have bailed early on a stock, to see it run soon after. It seems my patience is there but sometimes falls short at the 11th hour. But Not this time.....
Good luck everyone.
SYA Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)