Cdibb, I think you are bang-on with your thoughts.
When NEU entered into the licensing deal with Arcadia, NNZ 2591 hadn't even undergone Phase 1 trials. As such, it was only a speck on the horizon. Now that it's in Phase 2 trials and also now that NEU is talking it up as being better than Trof on a number of measures (ease/ cost of production, efficacy etc), it's got to be a major factor in any Pharma decision to licence Trof only.
As you say, why would any Pharma want to pay big $$ for a licence and spend further big $$ getting regulatory approvals in RoW for Trof when there's a potentially much better alternative only a few years down the track?
If that was me, as part of my RoW (or country only) licence for Trof, I'd be wanting the rights to NNZ 2591 as well. Granting licences for NNZ2591 or even giving something like a 'first right of refusal' to a RoW partner however, obviously restricts future options and hugely complicates the gameplan for NEU.....
I'm frustrated that RoW seems to be taking much longer than earlier indicated by NEU..... primarily because there are many other RoW Retts children who would likely benefit from Trof being made available to them given the exciting results we are seeing from the patients now able to use Daybue. However, as you do, I suspect that RoW negotiations have been greatly complicated by the intervening progress with NNZ 2591.
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