General Discussion Topics, page-105654

Fully subscribe to this possibility...one that has largely been overlooked.

The Japanese have realised they may be left behind, and have narrowed down Australia and Canada as sources of battery minerals.

Additionally the Japanese government, or associated vehicles have started investing in Australian companies, our very own Lynas has been a $200M recipient.




I also did a piece back in late April of a similar theme-
Post #: 67521286 29/4

I have been wondering lately about where the Japanese are headed, in terms of EV expansion, and securing supply of critical minerals.

Nissan is tied up with Renault, who have some investment and initiatives in this area, and will share various platforms.

Honda is spending 40Billion to 2030, as they have realised they are behind the 8 ball, and need to commit heavily to catch up. The Accord has been one of the best selling sedans in Nth America for years.

Toyota was in the press not so long ago, also with the realisation that they must pivot away from hybrid technology, and refocus the company towards pure EV's to survive, with recent billion dollar investments.

Of the majors, that leaves Mitsubishi, which I have not heard too much about...but I found this article today.
They already have some direct exposure to copper, and are now seeking out nickel and lithium plays, which have their own downstream processing capabilities.
In summary, it eludes to another major player, focusing on Canada and Australia for direct investment into a producer, with some moves already made-

Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi is appraising investments in nickel and lithium projects as the demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries soars, reported Reuters.
Speaking to analysts, Mitsubishi mineral resources group CEO Satoshi Koyama said: “As global resource companies and others are looking for lithium and nickel, we are considering investing in the two metals.”
Koyama said that a new mine must have a downstream operation to transform the metal into raw battery material. He adds that the main challenge would be determining whether it can be done in Australia and North America.
Koyama noted: “If the deal comes through, we may allocate the cash into growth segments such as copper and battery metals.”


From the world's 3rd biggest economy, who is realising they are late to the party and must be aggressive, to claw back secure, ESG compliant supply for their own battery and auto/EV industry.
This will bode well for Japanese manufacturers, as the Japanese Government recently pledged-


TOKYO -- The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will subsidise up to half the cost of mine development and smelting projects of important minerals by Japanese companies, Nikkei has learned.

Support will be provided through a fund set up by the Japan Organisation for Metals and Energy Security, drawing from 105.8 billion yen ($788 million) already budgeted for related outlays.

Lithium, manganese, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths are the main targets for support. In addition to lithium-ion batteries, such minerals are used for permanent magnets necessary for high-performance motors.

Geological surveys to determine the profitability and quality of mines will be subsidised. The initiative will also cover mine development and smelting operations. Those receiving the subsidies will be required to continue operations for at least five years from the start of mining and the smelting process.

The Japanese government targets a sevenfold increase in domestic battery production capacity to an annual 150 gigawatt-hours in 2030, about seven times the current capacity. Securing the raw materials is crucial to achieving that goal.

So another major worldwide player, who has seen the writing on the wall and is activeIy seeking out Nickel and lithium....and only considering Australia or Canada.
Chile's recent decision to nationalise lithium, would certainly be sending uncertainty through the battery metals sector.
Markets don't like uncertainty....
Investors don't like uncertainty...
Miners don't like uncertainty...
Who wants to heavily invest in a 30 year project, when the local governing body legislates that it has to be involved in a majority? And that uncertainty will infect all of South America, particularly Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.

Although this may not directly be relating to Sayona, indirectly, it is highlighting the importance of longstanding, stable government. You can invest in Africa, or some parts of Asia or South America while a particular government is in power...but the next government...or junta....or dictator...or civil war....where will that leave you???
While that threat is there, you must be very sure of your multi decade investment.

I was a couple of days off investing in Myanmar metals, and then it fell under military rule, with China tipped to pick up all resources there. And currently, I too like many, are still stuck in AVZ.
These threats on your investment are VERY REAL, and cannot be underplayed. Imagine you were investing billions in a 30 year mine......no thanks...
.Ghana or Canada?
.
Australia or DRC?
.
It's really a foregone conclusion....

I guess the point I am trying to make is the jurisdictions that are IRA compliant, have minimal to no geopolitical risk, who will maintain security of supply and help protect your investment, are dwindling.

The fiasco(s) in the DRC, highlight the very real risks ever present in Africa.
Political instability, tribal waring factions, ethnic cleansing and civil war are ever present. Bribery, is just a part of doing business there and if you are not adept in these finer arts, your projects will go no-where. On top of all that, China's influence in the region is indisputable, with their Kraken like tentacles(got a Kraken reference in!) all over that continent.

In North America, Mexico's nationalisation of lithium, even though IRA compliant, will stifle future investment in lithium there.
Likewise, in South America, Chile heading down the nationalisation path, has more than raised concerns, it will be the beginning of a decline of investment there and will probably also cast a cloud over investment in South America as a whole, particularly in Argentina.

Asia is a mixed bag, with the more stable jurisdictions not having vast quantities of natural resources and their poorer cousins, who have the resources are politically unstable, have corrupt governments, and may nationalise ...... as well and having strong ties to China.

Europe, is short on resources and heavily relied on Russia.....well that relationship is now dead...for the foreseeable future.

The USA has potential and is trying.....but ESG, permitting, unfriendly mine jurisdictions, and as someone once commented to me...its like dealing with 50 independant countries, ties it up in red tape and takes projects forever to get off the ground...

And so we are really only left with Australia and Canada.

In a very broad sense...Australia to tie up Asia, and Canada to tie up North America....and both to help Europe.
Which bodes well for SYA.
And if not at NAL, I believe we will definitely see some of this flow through for Moblan and the Northern hub. My gut tells me that the Koreans said to Brett and Guy...
'You prove up that resource and we will be on board. Cornerstone investor, project level finance and JV the 100,000t hydroxide plant. We are in.....just give us a mine that will deliver good grades and 20+ years....'
Dwindling jurisdictions and an ever increasing amount of governments and major players, who have seen the light and are now aggressively talking about direct investment in mining.....or risk being left behind

We have what they want, where they want it, with ESG credentials coming out our ears....not many these days outside of Australia and Canada can say that.
And even then, Canada is way ahead in ESG due to the hydro power and proximity to actual car and battery plants in Michigan and ohio.

Supply and demand...

The demand is there and growing, but now its from an ever decreasing jurisdictional base....we just need to get our ducks in a row and supply it....


And we may or may not have been in Japan recently.....

Good luck everyone...