OK time for the afternoon encore!!!
Many have been asking and waiting since my initial insights post above, so here are my expectations for Phase 2/3/4 post tax NPV and Free Cash (the key metrics in my opinion). DISCL:AINER: These are my own estimates only and may not reflect actual results from the company for the subsequent Phases - DYOR!
I have now taken the Phase 1 DFS and calibrated my economic model and I can produce very very close to their Phase 1 results now from my model, using the same inputs and assumptions they do, which gives me confidence in the below outputs for Phase 2/3/4.. I've modelled many projects over the years so quite confident in my model (and its detailed).
The key variables going forward are of course the CAPEX and OPEX for the expansion Phases, and of course your price assumptions, but for the below I've just kept price as per the Phase 1 DFS assumptions Galan used. I have assumed improved capital and operating efficiencies as we expand which is fully expected given economies of scale and pre-investment from earlier Phases.
I wont bore you all with the derailed inputs and outputs, but my model produced fancy graphs (yes I'm also an excel nerd) and so am including just one simple production chart below with the expected Phase 2/3/4 NPV and Free Cash Flows. This is a very powerful visual as to the very small part of the development that was actually released today (only the small solid blue wedge) and visually demonstrates the value to come! I have zero doubt HMW will eventually exceed 10MT of high grade Brine so this resource is truly world class and could easily support 40ktpa for 40 years so no concern of future ore reserves to support the below production (hey...did I once harp on about "40 for 40" years ago her eon HC? hahah!!)..
Look at these NPVs and Free Chas Flows!! Truly outstanding! Phase 2 is a slam dunk in my opinion and will likely even be as high as 25ktpa is they do what they did with Phase 1. Phase 2 DFS only 2 months away! We should be trading at least at 50% of this Phase 2 DFS post tax NPV (i.e. A$1B MC!!) and even higher once an offtake comes (which I except spoon after Phase 2 DFS is released). Note, at 25ktpa, the NPV and Free Cash above increases to US$2.2B and US$230Mpa, WOW, so definitely with Galan trying to squeeze 25ktpa out of Phase 2 <---message to JP if he reads this
The march back to ATH's starts today...Good luck to all.
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- Ann: Phase 1 HMW DFS Delivers Compelling Economic Results
Ann: Phase 1 HMW DFS Delivers Compelling Economic Results, page-61
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