A moderate dividend is likely to be announced once stage 2 is constructed and production underway. We need this cost certainty before any funds could be considered for ongoing distribution. Unless something goes horrible wrong, we get the benefit of no debt and high spod prices for all of stage 1 ramp up and production providing cash for a fully funded stage 2 expansion to commence construction in early 2026. Stage 2 flow comes online and is used to fund further company growth.
My best guess is for first dividend late FY27- 28 @ conservative ~10c per share, which would only be $A130m. This would then progressively increase to say 20cps over next 3 years, while any stage 3 or down stream JV processing plant construction risks are reduced.
By 2032 it could well be up to 50+cps from stage 1 & 2 production only as the company matures affording a ~ A$600m distribution p/a, if spod price stays consistently above US$3k /ton.
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