Acland Mine Approval, page-199

Putting aside the human elements.

His comments about coal prices already rising pre Ukraine are obviously correct. There is no disputing that, I'm not sure how you can objectively say otherwise. It's all in the chart.

Perhaps they don't go to $450 without the Ukraine invasion, but perhaps they would have. How can you say for certain?

Look at the oil price, it was supposed to be over $120 but now it isn't. It's still a standard deviation away from the long fun average, the same goes for Coal. Given we know Russia is selling more oil then ever, surely that narrative should hold water as well? The oil price should be well below where it is today. Or is it that there is still a fundamental underinvestment issue?

I'd argue the factors that led to the shortage are underinvestment and a slower then anticipated transition. It doesn't much matter what the catalyst is (Ukraine) it could be anything and I guarantee there will be another one. Hot temperature, cold temperatures, Nuclear plant in Europe blows up, Trade ban on coal from Indonesia etc. Tight supply is tight supply and that's all that really matters in this equation.