G'day again, some people realy need to get a hold here! It is IMPOSSIBLE to flow a well flat out with significant proppant grit still present - the why's and wherefore's have already been explained.
Someone suggested that the proppant was just about gone - WRONG! A large amount of proppant suspended in the frac fluid sinks down and ends up in the bottom of the casing. When you body surf and you walk out of the ocean the water may have drained off you BUT this does not mean you don't have sand remaining in your jocks.
When the frac fluid is about completely returned, it is THEN that the proppant is removed from the well. It does not make sense to do it any other way.
SLOW RATES due to avoiding damage. SLOW RATES help frac fluids to leak from fractures. SLOW RATES can often cause partial blockages in the tubing. All part of flowing a well back naturally.
Although I do not doubt the director's credentials as good businessmen, time and again they have proved that they have limited well head expertise.
BUT there is no need to lose the plot just now. You can not expect management to come up with high end numbers at a GM or they can get in trouble with ASX. I would expect that the numbers of 1mmcfd and 0.5mmcfd are ultra conservative worst case numbers. The reason I don't go to meetings, is that nothing worthwhile is released and you get lots of political rhetoric from them, by necessity, to avoid breaching the regulations.
With the unloading of frac fluid and subsequent production testing under the control of the drilling contractor (as were the terms of engagement), the directors can only interpret and ann what they are told - they are not at the well head, and once again, they don't have the actual drilling and/or completion expertise to interpret what they are being told - hence confusing anns!
With the significant worst case number revealed, supported by previous larger flows, I am confident this well will still meet our expectation. This well is in the top of the formations where gas accumulates and is in production configuration, it will produce bigger than the other wells, this is backed by the experts' decision to naturally unload the frac fluid,
I still think it will flow north of 2.5mmcfd.
Hang in there - nothing to lose - everything to gain
GDN Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
