Ann: Presentation Ramelius takeover offer for Musgrave Minerals, page-10

and he also said that Ramelius ' is a slick operation'. A reference perhaps to the recent masterful takeover of BRB which was effectively orchestrated by the arbitrage players who took a small profit fom buying the target, and short selling the RMS stock with the borrowed stock sourced from the institutional shareholders. The arb traders took a calculated risk that Ramelius would go unconditional ..and it did!
are we seeing the same arbitrage dynamics in this MGV takeover?
I believe so.
12million MGV shares traded today to bring the cumulative trade in MGV since announcement of the RMS bid to 58million = 9% of issued capital.
Are these buyers looking for a spoiler bid ?. Do they see value in MGV's fundamentals with attractive metrics when compared with its peers?. No and No.
As soon as Ramelius declares the bid unconditional they will accept the offer and return the RMS shares to the prime broker who facilitated their earlier short trade. They have taken the commercial decision that Ramelius will go unconditional...conceivably before reaching the 50.1% acceptance threshold.
That is not to say that there will not be the occasional MGV holdouts.
But with the likely acceptance by Jetosea for its 9% and Westgold for its 2.5% and Evolution for its 2%+ the momentum moves solidly in favour of Ramelius.
In my opinion Ramelius has already won this contest. Slick operators ..as the WGX MD says.
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