Considering what happened to other 1st world countries house prices it wasn't that unreasonable. Most of those countries prices are down 40-50%.
I don't think he thought the government would sit by but he didn't envisage how much stimulus would be applied to housing. The government propped up an already overpriced asset. It cost us (the people of Australia) a lot of future tax revenue. I think the stimulus could have been engineered more efficiently but it's too late now.
The problem with 'predicting' the future is that at the end of the day it's just a guess. You can only make so many assumptions and their different weightings can affect the outcome. Who here hasn't made a prediction that has turned out to be wrong, some proven so in a matter of a day!
