Hey Jon,
There are a lot of variables to consider in that question. Assuming a deal hasn't been done in the interim and their cash burn rate stayed about the same and the share price is sat where it is, or at least below 45c, they would need to raise capital again. That is going to sophisticated investors and/or shareholders asking for funds and issuing new shares to those who participate, likely at a discount to the prevailing price at the time.
In the event a deal occurs, and on this point, I am growing more confident will happen within that two-year period, then there may not be a need to raise funds. Even if a deal doesn't occur but a significant inflection point occurs that re-rates the price to previous highs and above there are about 160 million IMUOD options that will be in the money, from memory the highs of IMUODs were around 25 cents, so plus the 45 cents exercise price, they'd need the heads (share price) to be above that (~75c+) figure for all of them to get exercised. But a lot lower price (50c) for buyers of IMUOD at current levels (3.5c + 45c < 50c). I say this because it's unlikely someone who bought the options at 25 cents would pay another 45c to exercise them if the prevailing share price is less than 25 + 45 = 70c, they would be better off buying on the market.
IMU has done an excellent job at getting Options in the money in the past, and if they were to do the same with the IMUODs they would likely receive circa $70m of extra funds in the kitty (while also issuing an extra 160 million new shares in the process). And that would be in the bank well before their current cash reserve gets to a point of being uncomfortable. With that being said, it's a very tall task they have ahead of them to get the SP to those lofty heights within the next 12 months. But the beauty of this end of the market is that could really only take one big announcement to re-rate the SP overnight and get it to where it needs to be.
Having many irons in the fire means that this announcement could come from anywhere.
Her-Vaxx - As Leslie has stated numerous times, the mechanism of action is what BP has been interested in with it, these results have now been released, and we are still recruiting and running Her-Vaxx in combo with Keytruda, could this be presenting with enough data coupled with previous Phase II be enough to warrant a deal??
PD1-Vaxx - Currently in combo with Roche's Tecentriq, Leslie has mentioned very early on that we had a complete responder with PD1-Vaxx, how many more we don't know, will it play nice with Tecentriq... If so, will Roche see value in adding it as a combo? I posted previously Roche has lost a few indications with Tecentriq while Merck and others are hot on their heals around similar indications they are currently approved and gunning for. Will Roche wait longer and longer for more data or take a swipe at PD1-Vaxx and get things really moving clinically for approval to protect their current revenue and potentially add more? Let's not forget, Roche is supplying Tecentriq for free, and it was Roche/Genentech where our CEO last worked and was being groomed for Exec/upper management position before Paul Hopper brought her on board.
CF33 - It's been in the clinic for over a year now. CF33 has been shown to work with "teeny tiny doses" so its probably they have already seen a decent amount of benefit to patients. How much is really the question? Worst case from an efficacy data perspective, current cohorts are at or close to their optimal biological dosages. CF33 also acts relatively quickly meaning it will likely take weeks not years to start seeing the benefit in patients. Not to mention they are able to see where it goes in real-time through hNIS imaging. Given this, it is likely the team is already seeing CF33 hit its stride in patients and the clinical benefits being realised. Given data needs to be properly verified and confirmed, it could take another 3-6 months before current cohort data will be seen, that's not to say there wouldn't be very interesting data from earlier cohorts that could be groundbreaking on their own.
Nasdaq listing - Paul Hopper mentioned at the roadshow that discussions around this are well underway, but they wouldn't pull the trigger until they had a big announcement (which I took to mean "move the share price significantly higher") to release prior to doing so. Will they also get cash from that listing? Not sure, although it seems the ADR route would be necessary, and if they weren't going to need to raise and list then a large IB based in the US would need to hold a decent amount of stock to allow for the listing. Which JP Morgan currently holds.
Finally, although it's possible it's certainly not expected (from me at least) that they will be doing another raise without having significantly more runs on the board than they do. Mind you, I wouldn't be invested for so long and with such a large holding (relative for me) if I didn't lean towards the optimistic side.
Cheers
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