Just thought I would check to make sure I wasn't missing something. I've been using the table below, note that the SP is just the current SP to show what the PE would be with where we are currently at. It definitely not my prediction of what the SP would be under the various cases (I expect it would be a lot higher).
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
1
EBITDA
$2,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$8,000,000.00
2
D&A
-$800,000.00
-$800,000.00
-$800,000.00
3
EBIT
$1,200,000.00
$3,200,000.00
$7,200,000.00
4
Tax (30%)
-$360,000.00
-$960,000.00
-$2,160,000.00
5
NPAT
$840,000.00
$2,240,000.00
$5,040,000.00
6
SOI
1,106,730,667
1,106,730,668
1,106,730,669
7
EPS
$0.0008
$0.0020
$0.0046
8
Share Price
0.025
0.025
0.025
9
P/E
33
12
5
My prediction is the business is currently somewhere between Case 1 and Case 2 which would require quarterly earnings between $500k - $1m. It won't be what we see in the upcoming annual report where I expect the company will most likely report a loss (on paper) for FY23 due to the following:
Capital loss on sale of Tassie assets (as you correctly called out)
Financials at the end of FY23 were much better than at the start (growth in the company's bottom line over the year)
The good news is that FY24 has begun very strongly and with all of the new contracts the company has signed plus getting a full year out of the new PCEs there is a good chance by the end of FY24 the company will be just past Case 2 and working towards Case 3. If this eventuates I expect the SP will be north of 5 cents.
One other callout - I haven't adjusted the tax figures above to reflect the substantial losses from previous years that the company has carried forward and will allow them tax relief for awhile to come.
