Great Announcement . And probably more than the grades you'd have expected from a 60% share only of a rather originally ' infantly ' developed project by I.Q .
But on the flip side of that , it's probably still less than what you'd expect from that 60% held share of a project after spending in excess of A$200 million if you add on the allocated flow through that had been slotted from the approximate $53 million odd raised back in early March.
So just playing devil's advocate here in trying to understand why we aren't seeing much project value ' leverage ' , and that perhaps it might be because our project costs including acquisition costs are tracking at over $200 million before we even get to studies , approvals , permits to mine , and obviously start-up CAPEX which would be in the order of at least $500 million.
So I agree that on paper when you compare to our peers - on the one hand you can argue that we are cheaper in terms of having a ' Starting ' JORC tonnage which has grown in the multiples to those who have ONLY theoretical undeclared MRE's based on some intermittent exceptional drilling results. However , on the flip side of that is this notion that we paid far more for our starting JORC and add ons which ultimately need to be drilled by the same sort of dollars as our peers who have started with much less ' Acquisition ' costs for their 100% owned projects.
The other pick up and comment I would make which is based just around the announcement .....and whether it's simply another mistake , is this idea that they can punch out a DFS ,which you would assume has ALL the drilling and tonnage numbers in it ...... So you can punch this out in November if the statements are true , are we not potentially setting ourselves up for potentially another disappointment when the DFS for Moblan comes out in the estimated November period as per the below statement.
“ Significantly, these latest results have encouraged us to proceed directly to a definitive feasibility study, targeting completion by November. This will put us on a fast‐track to production, potentially as early as 2027 ”
And then state that the actual MRE upgrade wouldn't be coming through until first half 2024 as per this comment.
" resource upgrade is anticipated during the First half of 2024."
So I guess i would have thought that any up to date and current DFS would have to have the latest up to date MRE with the latest drilling results to best reflect the project economics and also given they also stated they will be looking forwards to further results in Quebec's LARGEST likely drilling program in 2023 ......NOT 2024.
And I know it can sometimes just be semantics , but given their track record on updating the market and shareholders with past drilling results , one has to wonder what they are thinking here ......, or indeed if it's just an oversight.
And I can see that the PIT Shell shape and size has already started to play itself out here - But again , I would think that use of the most up to date Pit Shell design taking into account these potential additional tonnages which will be filtering through to increased MRE would be integral uf not paramount to the best possible ' Economic ' and financial outcome emanating from a most current as you can DFS.
“ Importantly, Moblan will benefit from its proximity to road, rail and power infrastructure – a unique competitive advantage in the James Bay region. We look forward to further results from our drilling, likely to be Québec’s single largest drilling program in 2023.
Whatever the case , It would indeed seem to have been a change of management style in releasing results in this rather ' Left Field ' unexpected manner.
And I know some have already mentioned the possibilities here of a ' Whiff ' of a corporate overture of some description playing out here. So I wouldn't rule this out either ,as this is something I mentioned when they came out with the Moblan upgrade in March with the timing seeming just a little weird. And because this is often something you do as a defensive posturing .....to say ' hey Look at us now ' this is what we are shaping as , and so go away and sharpen your pencils and then come back and talk to us when you have something more reasonable. Who knows really , but you can't help but feeling its just a little bit like that. And even if it were to be a ending partnership like a RIO or Umicore coming along in a more involved tie-up , this would also generate the same ' Look at Us ' , Look at what we're doing and embarking upon.......look at our timeline of 2027 etc....etc.
So it is indeed putting a GIANT spotlight on us right before we go to sign off on our recent and also out of left field $200 million raise.....
So yeah , I too feel as though there is a somewhat ' Defensive ' posture in the chronology of recent events and the fact that we still have not heard anything about FIRST spod sale details which would also add obvious and potential BIG dollars into the valuation and partner matrices....... whatever they are or even ends up being. So in other words , someone or some entity potentially comes along offering or talking of a ' Figure ' of xyz , and then all of a sudden after receipt of your FIRST negotiated sale , you have $200 million PLUS those xzy dollars more of your own .... and much more than you had last week when you were initially entertaining talks. Defense man. Which is often the best offense. Suppose someone or some entity wanted that shipment more than someone else ......
What then. Do they come at you with an even better longer term offer.
I guess we'll continue to sit back and wait and see. Irrespective , its a great start by Management in starting to update us with the things that matter and the things that are generally accepted in resembling industry best practice.
(20min delay)