rr63, there is nothing wrong with European consumer sentiment (I'm Swedish and frequently travel around in Europe even if I'm working in Japan at the moment). The issue for VW is not consumer sentiment (and they know it), it's having compelling cars for the consumers.. A close friend owns an ID3 and it's just not up to par (quality, software, efficiency). In contrast, Tesla has zero demand problems, specially considering macro environment.
And speaking of macro - China is still in a slump while the rest of the world is getting back on its feet. Ultimately, Chinese spot prices are largely set by intra-China demand, demand somewhat driven by NEV adoption. NEVs are taking over rapidly, which will lead to higher NdPr spot price - one just have to be patient. Right or wrong, LYC SP is tracking the spot price extremely well (despite our likely pricing model), but while a turnaround for the spot may not happen until next year LYC is setting itself up to reap the rewards big time when they do.
In the meanwhile, LYC is still making profits and will increase production volume the coming 6-12 months, which has the potential to alleviate lower product pricing. We will also soon hear about USA plans, new drilling results, and I strongly suspect we have a surprise or two coming soon regarding our product range (hint hint). We are not without ammo in regards to sp catalysts, despite the low spot.
Also, speaking of ammo - we still sit on a huge cash pile, despite having already spent most of what we need on Kal.. Once $500m is spent on Mt Weld upgrades, we will still likely sit on $500-750m in cash.. we are (IMO) a very safe bet for LT investment, but if short term then you are at the mercy of Chinese spot prices (or the potential catalysts above).
I doubt anyone here can accurately predict where sp will be next week or month. Personally I don't trade LYC (but I trade other holdings)- too much tax implications/complications/stress for me.
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