Ann: Neuren and Acadia expand global partnership for trofinetide, page-121

Chook: "4500 registered as diagnosed in the USA of the estimated prevalence. Not an estimate. An actual register."
I literally said "Stick to the known patient populations" ie the 4500. Anything else is a guestimate at best.

Chook: "Yes we can speculate what the diagnosed level will rise to from the current 4,500. I'd say to at least 6000-7500"
Why? You are just pulling those figures out of your orifice. Retts is a severe condition with a relatively easy blood test diagnosis. Why would there be a sudden huge just in numbers diagnosed?

Chook: "although there were a number of practical reasons people went off the trial"
Don't misrepresent the data! All up, including the open label trial, there were 46% of patients who discontinued the medication of which more than 20% were due to severe events. And that's after only a relatively short period on the medication. There will also be patients for whom the drug is not effective.

There is simply no drug with orphan drug status that has achieved 100% market penetration or anywhere near that. Combined with the people who will go off medication, Acadia will be doing well to get a consistent 50% market penetration. That's 50% of the 4500 known patients. And the average time orphan drugs take to get maximum market penetration is 4-5 years.

If you can't be bothered to research thoroughly, leave the forecasting to the experts like Wilsons.
Gecko was wrong, greed is not good. It makes you do things like a headless chook.