I am a bit surprised by the amount of panic being expressed by retail. Many are falling into the hands of shorters, doing exactly what they want you to do. The movement of large amounts of money allows them to make influencing swings leading to huge profits.
Firstly, we have panic selling when RSI is through the floor. If you were so tempted to sell, why not do it when RSI is through the roof? This creates a question of what type of investor are you, long or short. If you are a long you can use the objective of shorts to take long-term strategic moves. Take advance, don't be taken advantage of.
I have a stake in CXO, nowhere near as large as in PLS and AKE, but as others have mentioned, there are lessons to be learned as a long as we look at history. The price today is irrelevant for the sell, only for my buy. Some things to consider:
1. Management tends to over-promise and underdeliver in the lithium space. Analysts tend to plug in over-promised figures in their spreadsheets.
2. CXO has just become a producer. It is impossible to get it right first go. Just look at the bigger players in the game for much longer. They have experienced teams and things are not 100% spot on, they are constantly adapting and improving. If they can't get new projects off the ground perfectly from day one with lots of experience, how do you expect CXO team to pull it off? At the end of the day this comes down to expectations management and when are you buying in, when RSI is under the floor or through the roof. If your expectations are way too high of course it is going to hurt. If your expectations are lower, then well, the news provided is not so shocking. I have seen, experienced and ridden the emotional bandwagon with PLS/AKE and for me, this is a none event, been there done that, here we go again as the company finds its feet and momentum. On the next wave up, those who sold will have feelings of regret, and those that failed to strike a bargain will also be in the same place.
3. CXO is making money, which is better than many explorers in a high-interest rate environment. Cash flow is available for the company to explore and grow. That is powerful. The key short term is to make those discoveries happen and increase the resource size.
4. Cost of production is high, but there will be opportunities to bring this down, remember they are just getting on their feet. This will take time. If you have a long mindset, think long-term.
5. The key influence impacting the market at the moment is price movements of spod/lithium. Many highly respectable commentators and PLS also spoke about this today, is that the demand for orders is strong, but what we are seeing is tiny volume causing a lot of noise. Why is such tiny volume causing so much noise? Who would benefit from that? If you are a long, noise is just noise, you need to pay attention to the long-term picture. What is the heavy volume doing? What will prices look like in the future?
6. Think about how much the change in the guidance actually impacts the long-term story.
Good luck all, do your own research and think things through rationally, don't make haste decisions. This is not fun to watch, but I predict, that history will repeat. This will be the start of the key movement that transfers substantial retail holdings to institutional holdings. The panic, and the forced change in momentum, will see institutions finally buy at the prices and volumes that they wanted. Long-term plan was executed perfectly.
PS. If CXO management is keen, propping up with some A40 assets on the cheap could do wonders for production output. I wonder if they will be in the data room having a look and crunching the numbers.
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Last
10.0¢ |
Change
0.005(5.26%) |
Mkt cap ! $213.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
9.5¢ | 10.5¢ | 9.3¢ | $2.185M | 22.37M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 565437 | 10.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.5¢ | 3161185 | 54 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 565437 | 0.100 |
3 | 711619 | 0.099 |
4 | 434502 | 0.098 |
3 | 125000 | 0.097 |
9 | 820657 | 0.096 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.105 | 2960894 | 52 |
0.110 | 3260937 | 38 |
0.115 | 1054522 | 20 |
0.120 | 2284201 | 28 |
0.125 | 1449822 | 26 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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