my take on value is up around the 40c mark for Australian assets. i.e. double the MC, and Mongolian assets extra.
Other than Walyering, there is the Condor prospect (and others) - which is getting near 0 value atm (hell even the Walyering asset is undervalued at $10/GJ gas).
Someone asked about play book. Well theres a heap of playbooks - WGO being the key one...and we all know the protagonists and how that played out after the initial STX offer was rejected.
Might be a little different this time, but the chess pieces have been set for a while now and the register looks like a familiar rogues gallery.
So my guess is it will eventually get to around:
- $200M MC, scrip for scrip deal, with the rollover relief cherry on top;
- Mongolian assets hived out; and
- I expect a $10M kicker into the Mongolian spinout (i.e. spinout gets a $10M injection from the acquirer a bit like it gets to keep the cash).
All STX has done is thrown a cat in amongst the pigeons to help precipitate the action.
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