STX offer guessing game, page-41

If they agree on a deal my guess the ratio is 1 TPD share gets 0.55 STX shares.

Because the original proposal excluded Mongolia I removed this from the current TPD share price using TMK.
TMK for 67% of Mongolia = 80M market cap.
TPD for 33% = 40M market cap.

TPD current market cap = 120M less Mongolia above (40M) = 80M TPD market cap without Mongolia.
In SP terms, based on a 19c close a 80M market cap equates to 12.67cps being TPD's current share price without Mongolia.

Then based on potential agreed share ratio's between STX and TPD I looked at what the associated return would be based on TPD minus Mongolia.
I would think it would need to be above 30% return as a starting point so beyond 0.5:1 at an absolute minimum for any sort of takeover premium.
My guess of 0.55:1 is equivalent to a 43% uplift on the non-mongolia part of the business.

See table below based on STX current SP of 0.445cps:

	Ratio	TPD	TPD less Gurvantees	Return on TPD adj
1	0.4270	0.1900	0.1267	0
2	0.4586	0.2041	0.1407	11%
3	0.4750	0.2114	0.1480	17%
4	0.5000	0.2225	0.1592	26%
5	0.5250	0.2336	0.1703	34%
6	0.5500	0.2448	0.1814	43%
7	0.5750	0.2559	0.1925	52%
8	0.6000	0.2670	0.2037	61%
9	0.6250	0.2781	0.2148	70%
10	0.6500	0.2893	0.2259	78%

There are likely many considerations I have not taken into account ie performance rights diluting TPD (the main reason a deal will be reached) and assumes a return on the $9M so just a bit of fun.

Let's see what Monday brings.