some good support, page-14

MOG's cash balance after 5% WA-360-P sale and paying off the credit line will be around AUD7mil/2.4cps.
Thats the downside target if A#1 is a duster unless they farmout another permit in the meantime.
I think you have to factor the possible downside into the equation when estimating pre result upside.
MEO with cash backing of 16cps is a better bet in this regard.

Wrt use of the AUD7mil cash, I think they will conserve it until A#1 result is known. A#1 probe wont be production tested so commerciality of any discovery wont be proven until they drill A#2.

A#2 (if they drill it) is budgeted to cost USD62mil or AUD73mil at FX 0.85. So MOG would need all their funds plus a bit more to fund their 10% share.

As for spud date, MEO's quarterly today has it at "late 2010"