The DFS (released Oct 2022) had a detailed project schedule. Since then, the timeframes appear to have slipped. The design of the plant was changed/simplified a while back (that saved 10million USD in capex) and probably altered/shortened some of the timelines, but it appears to not be on track for a start up in Dec 2023.
Going off the quarterly activities report "The Subantando Project site and perimeter clearing began in May with earthworks and civils commencing in August 2023".
If earthworks are commencing in August 2023 (DFS had them commencing in March 2023), that's 4-5 months late.
Even if they play catch up, these other larger tasks haven't started, so they're also starting late too:
-Phosphate Rock Storage (6 months to complete task). Scheduled to start in April, one month after the earthworks commence. So if it starts in September, that's 5 months late)
-Granulation Plant (5 months to complete task, was scheduled to start in April, if starts in Sept, 5 months late)
Followed by
Power Supply Services (5 months) scheduled to start June, 3 months after the earthworks commencing.
Site buildings (5 months) scheduled to start June. 3 months after the earthworks commencing.
Let's say they start these larger tasks in say September (once finance has been secured), starting them all at the same time, it's still going to take 4-6 months to have everything completed and running. Mid to late Q1 commissioning if everything goes to plan?
Of course these timeframes may compress, and it's possible each scheduled task is completed quicker than the DFS schedule, but it's still appears as if it is going to be late to some extent.
Looking at the schedule in the DFS, and given that Lindsay mentioned "early 2024" in his latest interview, it's easy to see that it has been delayed to some extent. While the delays are disappointing, I have watched MNB for 2 years, and the delays have become expected. The positives of this project remain, and MNB is getting closer and closer to completing the project, albeit after delays. Guess these delays are reflected in the SP.
The main hurdle now is securing the remaining funding. As Lindsay said in the Youtube interview, planting season starts in October 2024 (Spring time in Angola). Hopefully the plant is up and running well before October 2024, so that we have a stockpile of fertiliser distributed, and ready to be sold and distributed across Angola and ready for the farms to utilise.
