tui 2011 production forecast, page-38

I think there's some misunderstanding of the oil business here. The well was not "expected " to give 70 million barrels. There was probably a 1:10 chance (not sure of the particular odds in this case) of it coming in, and then in the success case it could have been that quoted amount. Also, by industry standards, AWE has been on average more successful than most companies. Perth, Bass and Otway Basins continue to do well, and exploration in those areas has continued to be ok. Recent wells in NZ disappointing, but first Yemen well looks good, and 2nd one looks positive already in secondary targets. Shame about Indo, but it's a prospective area and they'll get something further there sooner or later. And the idea they need a CR is a joke. Look at cash on hand, and they are still producing cash.

This is the oil business, AWE are a well run professional company, and they'll continue to have variable exploration results with runs of wins and runs of misses, just like all oil companies, But they have a sensible spread of acreage that will work in their favour over time. And ADI will be a very good investment for them.

The share price will improve over time, they are signififcantly undervalued at the moment, and may drop further on sentiment if the current NZ well is dry, but the underlying value remains strong.