I will agree that this dichotomy or disconnect in value perception of Moblan is potentially the whole key for someone like a RIO to be prompted into making the FIRST move.
And RIO has never been backwards in coming forwards in taking up a stake with ANY partner so long as the DEPOSIT is the right one. Olympic Dam and its historical activities in South Australia is a great example.
And this whole narrative of Lynch describing deals ( not necessarily strictly jsut off-takes ) as being a Baramudi until a ' Marlin ' comes along was used in the context originally in explaining their original intent with respects to Moblan in that same manner when they stated that they knew about Moblan as far back as Sayona's purchase of Authier .......but it was too expensive for them.
So he has used this analogy more than once and on different occasions.
So if I was to attempt to explain in some way how RIO might be examining its Canadian and Quebec options in the context of this analogy , I would illustrate it by presenting in the simplest possible manner.
So we know that these potential DEPOSIT discoveries in Quebec or anywhere for that matter - ie Australia , Brazil , Argentina .....whatever. The NEW buzz words for finds are expressed in ' Thicknesses ' , ' True Widths ' , and Contiguous ' Pegmatites defining High Grade ore bodies.
So indeed in Quebec , this new found interest or euphoria in Lithium mining has been a case of a Barramundi coming along until a Marlin is next reported. So if it wasn't Frontier's additional Spark component upgraded find , it was Winsome's Adina results ......., and then the build-up of Patriot's Corvette deposit which has culminated in the 8th World's largest contiguous pegmatite system. You also had LRS with its emerging catamarca hardrock project in Argentina happening at the same time as Sigma is talking about a Sale of its operations when it's currently valued at more than A$6 billion now. You have AZS now with its near surface massive thicknesses and widths as well as others doing amazing things here in our own backyard in Australia. It's like a good ol fashion pizzing contest when it comes to who's got the potential largest deposit.
So you then had what seems to be the patchwork Moblan results which were disseminated in between all of our peers lithium player wondrous achievements.
So coming back to the illustration. So RIO is sitting back watching all of this unfold and has to be wondering which geographical region has the highest potential with long life and high quality low cost mining. So ' low price ' doesn't necessarily have to mean how much up front they have to pay as it will be more a case of how ' Profitable ' the longer term LOM project could ultimately be.
O.K so you're RIO running the rule over say Patriot as a comparison and where most of its valuation ( and lets just round it to A$2 billion ) .is allocated to its Corvette find. So they also know that Albemarle is now circling that ' Marlin '......
So then if we were to argue that Moblan based on its potential MRE resource is the same , then if we say that RIO would then have to pay I.Q $800 million for its 40% of Moblan before it even spends a cracker on any exploration or mine infrastructure development and concentrator. So lets say that's another $500 million just on developing the Moblan ' Marlin ' when Sayona's valuation of just its share would be A$1.2 billion.
So then the clear question then becomes why would RIO do this when they could potentially pitch the entire lock stock and barrel starting price of not much more than Sayona's ENTIRE current valuation of A$1.487 billion .
Now we know that this would not be possible given that this does NOT allow for the ' premium ' component RIO would have to pay of perhaps as high as 50% initially. But even this would deliver them ALL of NAL and Sayona Quebec with 100% OF moblan for only just over twice as much as Moblan's 40% would cost them in its own right.
So while the recent Albemarle moves are very exciting and on the surface give the impression of being preemptive of something potentially bigger , the deal itself is longer dated ( 9 months from now ) , and the deal also is only valued at C$109 million for what amounts to 4.9% stake in Patriot.
So its relatively small change and almost conservative and does us NO favors in terms of pricking the ears of someone like RIO for the 40% of Moblan that Sayona does not own.and has no control over what I.Q decides its wants to do in order to attract favored mining partner fits for Sayona.
So if 5% of Patriot is worth C$109 million , then 40% of Moblan where typically RIO does not play ' Minority ' partners that well or that often often would be worth at least 8 times that right ?.......
So the only thing really stopping RIO from making the play is 1.) how much they actually want to spend - ie is it $ $800 million , $2.2 billion , ...or even $3 billion , 2.) how do they view the Piedmont ' Poison Pill stake and LOM offtake , and 3.) Rio knows how long and what is required for getting a mine up and running in Quebec and so will be looking at the likelihoods of SIZE , QUALITY , LOM COST, and shortest possible pathway to approvals and production.
So these are the issues RIO would know doubt be sizing up. In regards to point 3 , that would leave only Critical Minerals Rose deposit which already has its BAPE and approvals done or WAIT for Moblans DFS to be completed in November together with our further expansion drill results and then make their move when there is more certainty.
So they have time and there is really no urgency because Patriots DFS is not likely until 9 months from now. That is the challenge , and that is the race that is on now I reckon. Until then we don't know whether Albemarle is going to ' Jump ' or move on something else.
In so far as PLS making a Quebec move , they would have to pay BIG bucks. Because everyone knows they are ' Cash Up ' , and they will want their money. So they will be the ones who will be ' Bid Up ' , and that is why they will try and tread lightly and under the radar in whatever they end up doing. There will be no low hanging fruit left for them by the time they open up their wallet. Maybe Winsome or Critical Minerals if they're interested in Quebec .....or they might end up going the Ontario direction and take out Frontier with ultimately a few others. Winsome would deliver them a chunk of the highly prospective Case Lake as well as vast prospective areas in Quebec.
Whatever happens its going to continue to be very interesting while we wait......
(20min delay)