...As soon as AGY begins selling on the regular, the faster we reach that 5-15B MC.As announced, I turned to AGY with my open questions that could not be clarified here. Unfortunately I haven't received an answer yet.
1.Does AGY have an export license(limited or unlimited)?
2.Is there a DFS planned for the 10 ktpa project?
3.What is the impact of multiple participants extraction on the quality and quantity of the source?(Rio Tinto)
4.Does Argosy possibly only have water rights for 2000 ktpa and not more?
"Rincon holds large water rights on the salar that have no other current or likely future users." The Australian also reported at the time that "Rincon’s output could be expanded to up to 100,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year, based on the extensive access to water reserves already negotiated with local authorities".
5.Is point 4. the reason for the following description in the last announcement?
…clarification of hydrogeological queries related to the EIA submission…
6. In your view, does the regulatory approval process in Salta also take an unusually long time?
So these questions are still open. But apart from that, as I said, I prioritize the open question of financing.
What information is available from today's announcements?
• AUD $23 million in cash and cash equivalents
• Still no resource expansion ("...results awaited...")
• an upgraded brine Ore Resource estimate scheduled for completion by late-2023.
• Still no customers for the production of 2 ktpa,
Under highlights, the company speaks of "...strong financial position..." I think the management has this opinion to some extent exclusively. I estimate the range to be 10 months.Ashort-term strategic deal is existential.I am surprised that the Glencore/Eramet deal has received so little attention in this context. I don't like Glencore at all for various reasons.
But you have to acknowledge that they are very clever at exploiting the distress of other companies and making clever use of their financial power. The deal is as follows:
400m for 50,000 tpa = US$8,000/t for the period 2024 – 2028. For the sake of simplicity I split 50,000 evenly over the 5 years. By the way, Eramine's nameplate capacity is 24,000 tpa.
Eramet says it won $400M lithium marketing deal with …
I would really like to see contract details. Eramine will probably have to pay all OPEX costs, marketing costs, transport, etc. himself and if your DLE technique fails, are you then also liable with the Centenario-Ratones mining license?
Incidentally, Eramine/Eramet recently received a restricted export license for its project.
@GCar you asked for a precedent.
So 8000 US$/t is the current value for a strategic investment in a neighboring project(DLE).
What would the Eramet example mean for AGY? AGY aims to continuously achieve a nameplate capacity of 2000 tpa over the next 4 years.
I now assume 50% (less makes no sense) for a strategic deal from the example above.
The other 50% could be sold at either spot prices or off-take agreements.I assume a price of US$30,000 over the next four years.
When this is compared to the current market capitalization of US$300M, AGY is significantly overvalued.
Revenue: 38M vs. Marketcap 300M
PSR over the next 4 years would be 7,9
Given these numbers, a lot of growth has already been priced in.
That's why I don't see any great upside potential due to the progress that can be expected in the coming months/years. But on the contrary.
The risks from the questions I mentioned at the beginning and production delays are not even taken into account.
Another personal comment on the following highlight from the Q-Report
Argosy becoming only the 2nd ASX-listed battery quality lithium carbonate producer
Doesn't anyone find this a bit embarrassing? I think it is factually correct, but this statement is relativized considerably by:
…~20 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate product to date,…
Have a nice eveningSmith71
