mondays mess, page-38

Some good posts here, like Gazcan's. From where I stand, I find it's easier to predict long term trends as opposed to short term trends. The problem is, whenever a new trend emerges you always get a quick sell off or a counter rally - that whacks you hard if you get out early to prevent large losses, only to find the trend you were initially anticipating has naturally resumed itself.

If you look at any stock or index that finally breaks out from a very long term down trend, it's more often that not the chart will retreat say, 30% of its rally, go sideways a little, go down a little, make a higher high, a higher low, then a higher high with a few good spikes, down some scary-soil-your-pants falls, before the uptrend direction becomes cemented.

With or without charts - trying to predict what our market or America will do 'on next trading day' is very much like punting. But peak sentiment, loss of inertia, lack of market reactions to appropriate news can help one decifer when a market stall is occurring. A peak or trough can never be proven until after the event - and the majority will simply disbelieve anyone who says "we are at the market top" because it's the strength in the sentiment that is holding the peak at where it is - if they all believed that the peak has reached then the falls would then be instantaneous.

The bottom line is I believe trading should be fun - if that key component is missing then I say you're heading down the wrong path.