Technical, page-2390

I have asked for guess on 2023 Revenue and no one has done one so here is mine,


First to understand what I do and the errors that may occur let's relook at H1 2023 so we can compare to SAR. I will then present the Q3, Q4 estimates.

The first item you should note is the none of the totals = the numbers in SAR. this is always true. Q reports are cash flow reports AR and SAR are full accounting and include items not included in Cash flow reports. Combining income with expenses comes to a number that is usually higher than AR. Over time i have adjusted this by multiplying by a factor derived from last 2 or 3 reports Currently it is 0.85 Last year was a good year so it is aggressive now I may readjust after AR because I expect 2024 to be similar to 2023. Probably 0.9.

The second chart is Q3 & Q4 with the same possibility for errors it says earnings will be 271M Combining that with SAR actual is 421M. VS 540M for 2022.
Now PE is calculated on last 4 Qs which means the very good H2 half of last year is taken off and replaced with this years. Today with SP of Au 6.95 the PE is 11.8, MC is 6.5 B. That will result in a PE of 15. Can a company with growing profits and revenue support a PE of 15? Absolutely. Lynas revenue has been Falling since Q3 2022 and falling rapidly recently. Profits should be down about 22% Any one can see that Q1 2024 will be way down right now because of low prices and a 90 to 120 day book to bill delay. JMO Lynas will not be able to support a PE much over 11, maybe less, so the SP has to come down, This will continue through Q1, Q2 and SAR 2024.





I have modified this chart so any one that is interested can easily see the NdPrO price that Q3 and Q4 2023 were based on. About 650 RMB. Q1 2024 will be about 475. With only one or two months for Q2 little early to know for sure JMO less than 525. Even if NdPrO shoots up, 100 RMB in next 45 days.