I think that certainly has something to do with it.
Sayona has matured from a retail laden speccy, to full blown producer...who is still retail laden.
Somewhere in the growth cycle, the retailers are supposed to take profit and exit, where the instos pick up and run with the mature company. This has not happened as fast as usual at Sayona, or in the broader lithium/ EV mineral sector.
CXO, PLS, LTR, the retail guys are hanging in there, and the big boys don't like it one bit. Non traditional... Very un- Wall street like...who do these retail guys think they are?
That's why we see the same BS play out on these stocks...PLS is still copping it...still plenty of retail there....
The timing of Covid, the influx of the bored retail investor, stuck at home and pouring liquidity into the markets, the infancy of the electrification of the planet requiring the irreplaceable lithium, and a bunch of companies in their early stages, delivering the dream. Early stages, which were cheap enough, for the humble retailer to buy in the millions.
Presently, we are seeing the legitimisation of the lithium sector, a shift from the infancy when we invested with pennies, into the mature trillion dollar juggernaut it has become.
So the retailers poured in, and ARE rusted on, still ever present in the lithium/EV sector and holding big percentages.
And most of them are well researched, informed and aren't going anywhere.
Even when some of the worlds biggest instos, tried to crash the sector with FUD and grubby forecasts. Tried and failed. For they did cause a plunge in the lithium price and lithium stock prices, but the informed retailers bought more... And now when they try that crap, no one listens...the boy who cried wolf indeed....
They will hold and see how this EV revolution play out.
As for Sayona, Being below intrinsic value certainly beggars belief!
I mean, what would it cost to build another NAL, in Canada, from pegging land/greenfield exploration to first shipment? Permitting, environmentals, mine, infrastructure, concentrator...the lot.... Maybe C$1-1.5B?? Well, that's where we are at!
And how can Moblan be worth nothing?
A dismal position 262 on the ASX
CXO is now at position 295
It seems we will both be out.
Maybe not a bad thing, if it plays out like it did at PLS....see my Post #:69172671
High retail has been a target since the Covid investors piled in. And Sayona's is one of the biggest retail laden stocks on the ASX. The traditional insto money has not poured in yet, as its waiting for measurable metrics to analyse, which should be by the next quarterly. The only accumulation so far has mostly been from CR's and algorithmic trading. Even then they are in and out....
Additionally, I posted some other thoughts yesterday..
Probably a combination of things coming together.
Could be imminent bad news or latent good news.
The knuckleheads out in force is always telling, helping steer the SP to capitulation.
Our newsflow is not the best, and when it does come is ambiguous and sometimes leads to more questions being raised than answers. One of my pet hates and I continue to push the company to improve and will keep doing so. But I am just a pizz ant ordinary shareholder, they don't answer to me?
The market does not like ambiguity, and we have been doing ambiguity for a long time. It almost feels that with every announcement, there is something in it they are hiding, which does not inspire confidence.
A bottomed lithium price and Low sentiment in the sector certainly isn't helping.
This transitory period from an explorer to producer is a difficult one. We are seeing it in CXO as well, whose ramp up seems more challenging than ours. And with this, a shift in valuation dynamics from sentiment and hype driven, to actual dollars and cents traditional financial measures.
Additionally, very possible the instos have realised we wont stay in the 200, selling down...But selling at a loss??? In such big volumes??? Thought they would have tried the old pump and dump to exit, rather than just bail. and last time, they started in their moves in the last 2 weeks, not this early.
This sharp drop has no doubt triggered some stops, adding to the bleeding and volume. Some shorters would be buying and taking the opportunity to close out as well.
The churn around 14-15 did look stale. The did try a few times there to break through, this time they were successful. They are plugged into the exchange, so the algo may have done the math and they were close to breaking through, so took the opportunity for a big sell down.
Fundamentally, I haven.t seen anything to indicate an issue. Our ramp up actually seems quite decent and perfectly acceptable. It would have been nice to get some idea of what we were selling at from the last announcement...maybe word on the street is its a crap offer???
So, a few things going on, but ultimately mate, your guess is as good as mine.
I do know one thing though, after big downramp and FUD attacks, which drives our SP to a major capitulation, we have historically rebounded sharply, particularly in August/September. Combine that with our 200 exit, a couple more shipments with visible revenues in the September quarterly and we may just see a big turnaround in the not too distant future.
Good luck everyone...
SYA Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)