don't upset ministry oil and gas in kazakhstan, page-38

JPR claim to have the following targets

target jun-10 25,000 bbl/mth
target jan 11 47,000 bbl/mth

based on the above, current POO, current AUD$, i have the following estimated EPS.

EPS on 25,000bbls 0.007 x PE of 6 = SP 0.04
EPS on 47,000bbls 0.015 x PE of 6 = SP 0.09

Todays price imo reflects slightly below fair value, however any spike due to JV partner announcement, delivery of more development wells, etc. Would certainly de-risk JPR and as is the way everyone will want to jump in.

So my reasoning for being in JPR is;

0.03 to 0.033 add to my position
0.04 fair value
0.09 Target to sell half my holdings
0.12 to off load the rest.

Patersons and Westhouse have a 16 cent target. Their members will be watching closely for a news catalyst before jumping in.

At the end of the day this a speculative buy at current levels but at the prospects are good.

I compare this with CVN with a MC $227mil, 900,000bbls per annum in dec08 the SP was around 26/28 cents and 6 months later 80cents was hit. It was news catalyst that drove the price because everyone was watching before jumping in. Once the herd got control it went to 88 cents. (todays price 33 cents).

I use CVN as i was familar with it was i entered at around 29 cents, the same/similar debate raged then as it does on this thread.

I exited CVN around 64 cents average.

In 2008 CVN had broker targets 60 to 68 cents (from memory)

Don't under estimate the power of two brokers pushing this stock if and when the news catalyst arrives, their call is 16 cents (12 mth target). I wouldn't be surprised if it over shot and hit 19-20 cents, as did CVN.

So for me this is a 6 month punt for return target of between 150 to 233%.

So all the daily chatter is just noise, lets wait for the news first.