Charts, page-4108

Some thought provoking comments and you're on the right track to making some good observations that could inform decision making in my opinion. Asking about the statistical likelihood of a move is the right approach. I like to stack signals, needing atleast 3 to provide a sense of confidence. Chart patterns (price action) is one of them. The others I use are emas (trend strength and how price respects it) and avwap (implies selling and buying pressure levels used by traders / big investors etc). Volume profile is good for big picture. The other more sophisticated thing is understanding the breadth of algos used to distribute, accumulate, or generally trade markets. Behavioral economics is also very important to apply to your top down analysis. The main technical characteristic I look for is compression - this precedes almost all volatile moves.

That's clearly a lot of information to digest and it takes time to achieve a hegemony across these disciplines. The best time to start learning is now if you're so inclined to incorporate technical analysis with fundamental analysis. This is arguably the most comprehensive approach to markets, albeit very time consuming.

With regards to predictions - I can't help with this. I've come to the conclusion that the only things I can predict are that I'll wake up with my dog lying next to me patiently waiting to be fed, and that the majority of people ultimately only want their perspectives confirmed. My trading model works for me and is designed to capture directional shifts. I think if predictive price models worked then market speculation would not exist as the big investment banks would hire these people and there would be no alpha in the markets whatsoever in quick succession. Risk management is something no one really talks about as most are focused on entries, but this management of risk is how you get results over the long term and out of a random equity curve. Developing a full trading model has been my focus these past few months and through that process I've come to realise that my posting charts while useful for me in getting thoughts down, doesn't feel helpful to the wider community. I trade my own way and it likely would be useless to others.

Gaps have a higher chance of being filled in range bound markets, less so when they were created from an impulse (large shift from a range) move.
SKYT and WBT have no meaningful correlation from a quick study I did awhile back.

Here is an interesting info-graphic of where chart patterns typically feature in chart histories. This guy is an interesting follow for Twitter/X