Ann: Strike to acquire Talon, page-37

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19crowe45

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14/08/23

15:29

Post #: 69328604
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Originally posted by 618: ↑

Hey HC, haha I'm fine. Having listened in on the webcast, I have a better understanding of why they would want to do it. Essentially this is a CR transaction by stealth - by issuing shares to buy future cashflow. As I had mentioned before, it all comes down to what you believe STX scrip is worth vs where it is trading currently. I have consistently said on a DCF basis, I believe STX is worth far more than where it is trading today. Given STX is paying par for dollar in this transaction (assuming gas price doesn't drop or Walyering production unexpectedly falls off a cliff), I believe we are using an undervalued scrip to buy what would be fair value scrip at best. In that respect, it makes little sense for me to be excited about this deal. In fact, I would be contradicting everything I have said about STX being undervalued if I believe this is a good deal.

I am only a bit "meh" about this transaction because it is a smallish transaction relative to STX market cap (about 11%). So even if it turns out to be the dud of the century, it won't be catastrophic.

I honestly can't understand why TPD holders aren't happy with the proposed deal. They have been offered a decent premium for their PB asset, maintain exposure to Mongolia, and enjoy what is essentially a free put option - to see the outcome of the 2 SE wells. If the result is crap, they can still vote the scheme down in mid-Dec when the vote takes place. Anyway, if TPD is truly that undervalued, then one would think there will be a higher bid coming their way soon.

Anyway, this will be my last comments on this takeover as it isn't going to change the outcome and I think I have made my side of the argument quite clear. I'm just looking forward to the drill programme and focus on the true value add activities of this company

PS. This is what Hotcopper should be all about. People being able to hold and discuss different views and opinions in a civil manner without resorting to name-calling, baseless random fantasy valuations (eg. this should be worth $500 because I feels about right), etc.

618

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I couldn't agree with you more. I also believe STX is undervalued and should have been a 50c share a year or so ago. This along with the constant changing of Walyering production isn't doing anything for my disposition or bank balance. Will production be setback further as they complete the transaction and tidy up details? It would appear yes is the answer because they would be reluctant to proceed at full pace until everything is signed, sealed and delivered. My wife and I are suffering from Chronic Strike Fatigue. Cheers to all holders.
On a lighter note any offers for the items below?

STX Price at posting: 41.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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