Hi Pottermore, In my view, the geological chance of success (COS) at Saturn is around 10% (1 in 10). The main reason I have a fairly high COS, is that since Saturn shares the same migration route (vertical charge into the overlying reservoirs) and seal, as the Venus discovery, I elected to give migration and seal a risk rating closer to 1. Pre-Venus, a risk weighing closer to 1:15 for Saturn would more appropriate. Venus de-risks several elements.
Importantly, the Saturn 3D seismic will be a key data set to enhance our understand of these risk elements. For example, if a direct hydrocarbon indicator, such as the AVO (amplitude versus offset) anomaly that conforms to depth structure at Venus, exists at Saturn, that will significantly improve Saturn's COS. Conversely, the 3D seismic may identify thief channels up-dip of Saturn that potentially breech the trap, thereby decreasing the chance of success, and so on............
Kind regards OldGeo
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