MAY 0.00% 2.3¢ melbana energy limited

Ann: Block 9 Alameda 2 Appraisal Update, page-827

  1. 269 Posts.
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    I've alluded to it before but I suspect we are looking at another Varadero with this upper sheet. Min (assumed) quadrupling of the resource size takes total resource to 360M. That is a resource size that you throw capex at to improve the flow rates. Remember flow rates are just a function of more capex. The size of the field compels the capex. MAY's ~20% = 71M barrels.

    Assume 10 wells at 1,000 bpd each. (Thus call it 2,000 pd to MAY)
    Field life at 10,000 pd = 99 years...So obviously you jack up the capex with better pumps / more wells etc
    Likely 3-5M per well. MAY coughs up 30% of capex (call it 15M)
    WTI ($70) @ 60% = 42 USD pb. No need to stress about exporting as this will just displace the Venezuelan imported oil.
    Onshore opex = 15 pb.
    Thus 27 USD net margin.
    Assume 95% operational time
    Thus 365 * .95 * 2,000 * 27 = 18.7M USD.
    Capex covered in 12 months. This shows why you could go even harder on the Capex if you wanted to because the payback is so quick so 10,000pd may well be unders.
    Thereafter you have ~$30M AUD p.a. (less corporate overheads).

    You absolutely commercialise Amistad.

    So that is your baseline operations.

    Now what if Alameda and Marti throw off export grade higher API oil at big unassisted flow rates...

    Moronic share price.

 
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