Askari Metals- Media coverage, page-125

Couldn't really tell you a %, but it's relying on a lot of factors. I'm by no means an expert, but here are some of many risks.

- Was there ever economic spodumene concentrations to begin with before weathering (over 15% of the pegmatite body needed minimum, in weathered zone currently shows 1-3%)

- Is the polylithionite from weathering, or has it been there the whole time as a consequence of the original magma geochemistry. If it's the latter, then the rest of the pegmatite will likely also be predominantly lithium mica, which is absolutely a project killer. For the record I have never seen an example of that much lepidolite/mica forming from pyroxene alteration/weathing. Doesn't fill me with confidence.

- Is the aquifer affecting the entirety of the pegmatite down-dip? Fractured aquifers love pegmatites and the faults or deformities that they intrude into, it offers great permeability. So there is no reason why the pegmatite can't be broken down below the currently known water level.

- Will a potential find of spodumene be big enough to justify removing the waste pegmatite sitting on top of it? This will be an underground or high strip ratio operation, with no DSO available for CAPEX assistance, dilution required. For reference, the grade of spodumene found by Andrada at the B1/C1 pegmatites would probably not be worth mining if it was below the overburden that Askari has due to weathing. Andrada has not mentioned any kind of weathering at these pegmatites.

Management don't seem to actually have much confidence in the potential of the diamond drilling program. Their actions have shown this clearly (delays, diverting focus to new "prospective" corridors, etc).

IMO the market is pretty accurately pricing in success likelihood, and probably attributing very little to the Aussie plays. I'm now only holding a few options for the diamond drill result. I'm not one to fall in love with stocks. I had super high hopes here, but over time both the geology and geologist competence/communication has become a let down. There are better plays out there.

Good luck to those who continue to hold. I truly hope they make a discovery and put Namibia on the Li map.