Ann: 1H 2023 Results Presentation, page-9

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23/08/23

19:59

Post #: 69510486
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Originally posted by mnbvcxz12345: ↑

Taylor Collison report a year or so ago

unless im reading it incorrectly, sales are probably $500m as opposed to estimate $213m
and price target was $9.77c - ironically the stock price today

we are currently running at twice the revs

its a beautifully controlled BUSINESS growth, which should please everyone with smaller losses and margins bla bla / AI etc

add in the high prob of renal and brain imaging/ therapy if you like - Seneffe, so reducing exposure to others
i honestly believe this thing is ridiculously cheap again

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)
A strong start for Illuccix
Our View
Telix reported sales for its Illuccix prostate cancer PET imaging agent in the US
of US$13.6m in Q222. This was a positive surprise, 36% above our base case
forecast and towards the upper end of our expected range of US$10-15m. While
there is still a long way to go, Illuccix has made a strong start in the US and
looks to be on track to capture 30% of the market, in line with our forecasts. With
the Illuccix HCPCS reimbursement code and Pass-Through status in force since
1 July, we expect sales to grow by ~160% to US$36m in the current quarter; we
increase forecast Illuccix scan volumes by 40% and 4% in 2022 and 2023,
respectively. The upgraded near-term sales forecasts for Illuccix increase our
valuation slightly to $9.77/sh (31-Mar $9.72), or $9.23/sh fully diluted.
Key Points
Upgraded US Illuccix in-market sales forecasts for 2022-2023
The changes to the modelled quarterly US Illuccix sales underlying our previous
and revised forecasts for 2022-23 are shown below.
US Illuccix in-market sales Q222a Q322e Q422e CY22e CY23e
Prior US sales forecast (US$m) 10 25 29 64 204
Revised US sales forecast (US$m) 13.6 36 41 90 213
To put the Illuccix sales in context, sales for Lantheus’s Pylarify PSMA PET
tracer since its US launch in June 2021 are shown below. The first quarter of
Illuccix sales were well ahead of the first quarter of Pylarify sales. Pylarify sales
increased by 162% after its HCPCS code came into effect on 1 January. We
model Illuccix sales growing at the same rate in the current quarter.
Lantheus Guidance Q222-Q422, per qtr
Q321 Q421 Q122 Low High
Pylarify sales (US$m) 8.0 35.4 92.8 97 109

Expand

Thanks for the reminder I almost had forgotten the Taylor Collison report.

So if we keep it very simple and stupid (just to get a rough idea of SP trend):

Taylor Collison $213m > $9.77 SP
Then UBS, Wilsons etc. $400-420m > $14 SP
Now, reality: $500 > $?? SP

That would be minimum of $16 SP easily, perhaps even $18-20 if we get smth like $550m at the end of the year? But bare minimum $14/15 for sure.

Hang tight folks

TLX Price at posting: $9.79 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
14 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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