Ann: FY23 Full-Year Investor Presentation, page-35

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Mrpaul222

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25/08/23

17:54

Post #: 69555970
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Originally posted by gragou02: ↑

I thought that the result was roughly as expected.I agree with your thoughts here i.e. the result was quite good but doubts about the next twelve months should weigh heavily on sentiment.
There is no doubt that this is a well-run company that maximizes the opportunity with which it's confronted but these are the points that make me hesitate a little:

Although the profit was a record it's most reasonable to compare it to 2021 given that 2022 provided total closures in Melbourne and Sydney which made good retail results impossible. Although 2023 was better than 2021, the tax rate in 2021 was 31% while it was only 26% for 2023 (for legitimate reasons of course) and the apparel group (Glue stores etc) were not relevant in the 2021 numbers.

The 2023 NPAT was $88m, however, the first half of the year delivered $58m while the second half provided $30m. The first half of the year is usually better than the second half due to Xmas but never by this difference.

The dividend, which catches the eye, was achieved after the company paid out 108% of the EPS. They have, most times, paid about 80% of the EPS.
Had they paid out 80% of the EPS this time, the dividend may have been about $0.12 for the year which, with an SP of $2.16, would represent a yield of about 5.5% before franking (it's not a bad thing to do this as their Balance Sheet is strong enough but it can change investors perception of a company's worth)

Having made those points, I wouldn't be selling just yet if I owned shares here.
Even after today's price increase, they're still trading on a P/E of about 13 which leaves a bit of room for a poorer 2024 and, when the economy improves, I'm pretty sure these guys won't get left behind.

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This isn't a company to sell. Won't be supprised if 3 is hit next year.

AX1 Price at posting: $2.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $1.30		Change -0.065(4.76%)		Mkt cap ! $787.5M

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$1.36	$1.36	$1.30	$5.588M	4.239M

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