Another way to look at this is that present holders will be getting 1.2c per share back soon, post the small shareholders clean up, which is essentially a very very small buy-back and admin saving.
At the 8.5c price now, you're effectively paying 7.3c for the Blackspur assets as it's a capital return, which is a rough market cap of $45m. Now the main question becomes, is Blackspur worth more than $45m? On a range of metrics it still looks like it is.
But with Montney gone, I don't have too much interest in this as a pure play producer. The big sell off on Friday plus comments on here shows that is not an uncommon view. I do think it has been oversold, but do I want oil exposure here vs the oil universe and the honest answer is probably no, which means the new marginal investor is either a deep value investor or one looking at a M&A play.
I will state that I think Blackspur will be sold within the next 1-6 months, particularly if oil can hold above US$80. If management are not lying and that it was based on EV/EBITDA multiples then that implies >100% upside. That now becomes the investment thesis plus hoping they can cashflow fund distributions with a leaner focused approach.
My biggest worry though is that it could mean management and the board doing themselves out of a job, which is aligned with shareholder interests but potentially not their own. Self interest is a key driver of behaviour. I do say potentially as Glenn has a few shares and it's probably a good way to exit as he can't really sell without killing the share price and sending the wrong signals vs his recent buy but I don't really have faith in management.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- CE1
- Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice
Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice, page-8
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 9 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add CE1 (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
0.9¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $5.571M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Featured News
CE1 (ASX) Chart |
Day chart unavailable