As stated this am before the announcement I expected there would be a subdued SP response to a positive announcement due to the legacy of MEO and Zapato which have seen a lot of SH burnt over a long period and that this is Cuba.
Much now depends on AP’s decisions. Al 2 was a faultless well drilled faster than the allotted time, much better than the many failures of Al1. That is a good start. Clearly we need a second rig to start drilling horizontally into 1b from one of the 3 well pads that have been chosen to allow access to both upper and lower sheets. That was wise. I don’t see a lot to gain from re entering Al1, either to PA it or try and produce from it. Why bother chasing 1200 bopd when you will soon have multiple wells producing >3000 bopd. It can just sit there whilst Al3 is drilled. Errol wants Al3 to have another look at the upper sheet on the way down. AP doesn’t. AP wants to go direct to Al 3. Other team members have a different view. Then we have a logistics constraint of 5,000 bopd which needs to be addressed urgently as part of an holistic approach. No point having 3 horizontals producing 10,000 bopd if you can’t shift it, refine it and sell it. If Al3 produces a lot of higher grade oil it adds to the complexity. We urgently need 3D and we need refining capacity and a market for our oil. No point selling it to Cuba, they don’t have $US. We don’t need bananas and sugar cane so we don’t want to barter as Cuba does with Venezuela.
When cost recovery is finalised then Cuba gets 36% roughly of production, they can burn that for electricity. Sonangol and MAY need to sell to the international market. Many people of all different experience will be knocking on MAY’s door now.
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