Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-20

Periculum - the weight of money in the weight of money concept you postulated on 28 August seems to have become even more weightier in recent days for RED.

What's intriguing me at the moment is what's really behind the increased trading volume in RED shares and the fairly rapid rise in the share-price over recent days. (I admit, I seem to live my life in a state of perpetual intrigue but then again, I guess it's curiosity which leads to the advancement of human knowledge).

I know RED's results were released recently but there were no surprises (one way or the other) in either the numbers or the commentary released by the company.

Broker Reports put out since RED's announcement this week have been pretty hopeless in my view. One firm increased the target price for RED solely on the basis of changing its own forecast of the AUD/USD exchange rate for the next few years. Another I saw increased its target price by increasing its own forecast of USD gold price assumptions going forward.

For the life of me, I can't really see institutional investors suddenly getting the hots for RED on the basis of the "research" put out this week by those broking houses which cover the stock. And I can't see that the numbers/commentary released by the company earlier this week would suddenly encourage an institution who's been following the stock to suddenly hit the buy button and take up a holding in RED.

It's possible that the recent broker reports may have enticed some retail clientele to either put RED shares into their portfolios or increase their existing holdings in the company. But what I think I'm noticing is that there've been blocks of shares - 500,000, 1m and even 2m and more - going through in single trades. These would be unlikely to be retail investor trades I'd suggest.

RED's Shareholder Calendar suggests there'll be no more announcements from the company until sometime in October, so those buying at the moment aren't punting on some good news being released (initiated from the company at least!!!!) in the near term.

So, who is buying, who is selling and why?

I'll be maintaining my boring vigil watching for Substantial Shareholder Notices because as things stand at the moment, I haven't got a phuking clue what the answers to the questions in the preceding paragraph are.