Top Down Again... in a nutshell before I go on... seeing our index come up to some strong resistance specifically on the monthly and daily.
Monthly Chart:
Not a lot to add from the indicators, the MACD and the stochastic are not that useful here... however, I do note Prices current dalliance both with the 13 Period Ma and the 38.2% retrace levels from the March 09 lows.
If price can get up and hold above that level, at 4530 odd, then a revisit of the 50% would shurely be on the cards.
Also note theat the initial test of the 21 period moving average certainly provided some good support, though I still contend that there is a possibility on this time span ofr the SPI to be in a dominant 5 wave down, elliot style, and there is nothing yet to say that wave 5 down, currently what we're in, may not be valid... to invalidate the 5th wave proce must get up above the 5000 level, a LOOOOONG way from our current 4500.
Weekly:
The weekly is currently in a bit of a No Mans Land as far as giving clues to future direction.
Price appears to be between the support of the 13ma, (4430 ish) and resistance of the 21ma (4600 ish).
A brteak above the 21 MA would give weight to further upside, a break below the 13ma would give weight to further downside... and no surprise, the current week is showing in the form of a doji, market "in balance" and undecided on future direction.
MACD The arrowed area on the MACD moving averages shows they are coming close to a cross over here. This is again an "either way" situation and until something happens nowt can really be said. Stochastics: a crossover for sure, but my main concern here is that the stoch signals have not yet managed to make it down into the oversold area in thsi particular down cycle. This couples with previous comments about the three peaked divergent pattern on the MACDs which on lower timespans generally is not complete until the stochastics hit oversold...
Back to the MACD's though and big point, if the Moving Averages manage to get back over the zero line without going lower then Upside of a dynamic variety is to be expected.
Daily:
There are two "clues" on the Daily chart that suggest to me that we might have some downside ahead, similar in strength to the down run mid June to Mid July.
Firstly Stochastics have given a teensy divergent signal whilst up in the overbought area. This signal, as marked for previous occurrences has been pretty useful in both directions, and also must be noted that the signal is geernally pretty darn small.
To highlight the ACTUAL divergence I have marked the blue line starting on the stochastics and sloping down at the SAME starting point as the corresponding segment on price.
Secondly, the bracketed histogram bar theory on the mACDs which in this case shows a bracketed bar followed by a bar of lesser magnitude, giving weight to the downside case.
The last time we had both stochastic divergence and bracketed bar clues to the downside was at the start of the mid June sell off... Bizzarrelly enough, the previous bracketed bar, marked by the red circle, no longer shows... THE CHARTS HAVE CHANGED POST THE FACT GRRRR... but as luck would have it I saved it at the time... and a few times after that vis:
Not happy about the change in chart values but that is out of my control... Anyways, last time was a good herald so "I no Complain" (much)
The Hourly:
mmm The Hourly has gone all messy again.
the massive divergence over the last week took some time to result in a drop.
Current very localised action would suggest that we have the potential of another equal measure move up to be completed vis the thick blue line segments in the latter part of the chart. The stochastics being strongly up auggesting they want to get into the overbought section again appears to validate this. Also price has managed to hold above the 21 ma in this second local attempt. viving wait again to the possibility of upside on this timespan.
Of interest only but interesting nevertheless are the marked dotted horizontal lines all relating back to the gap caused by the reaction to the Flash Crash of may the 6th.
Red dotted is bottom of gap black dotted is opening price the following day, Blue dotted is the top of the bar after opening, and black undotted is the first resistancee one bar after.
Significant levels, hard to judge now. Th lower thin red horizontal line is the histogram based downside target for the current divergent run up.
Conclusion NO IDEA!!!
LOLOLOL
daily really is suggesting that downside is the go but of all the analysed timespans this is the ononly one with any real indications... Monthly shows we are at a strong area of resistance, and weekly shows we are coming into a strong area of resistance.
I would like to see the hourly get up into the overbought area on the stochastics early on Monday, preferably a nice gap up on open, from which I would attempt to short it...
A shorter term "intraday" clue, the fact that the SPX500 finished at or just after the closing bell dynamically up suggests to me that downside orientation on the monday is the go... but time will tell.
(20min delay)