Sylau, you would have to talk to Otsuka Pharma if you want to understand the logic behind their decision to bid for Mindset Pharma. The chances that anyone on this forum understands the inner workings of their strategic plans are vanishingly small.
I'm not sure which long term posters you are referring to, when you say they have been claiming no big pharma will be buying up IHL at the current stage. Regardless, acquisitions can occur at literally any stage. Incannex has communicated that they have already had discussions with interested parties (although I believe it was not specified whether the subject was partnership, licensing or acquisition). We can only assume that the offer(s) did not align with the strategy of Incannex. As you probably know from all the time you spend hanging out in the forum of this stock you do not own, Incannex aims for a GW Pharma type deal and in the interim, pending such a deal, plans to develop their pipelines towards commercialization.
Selling any of their assets at this stage of development would not at all fit the profile of the GW Pharma type deal they are aiming for, would it now?
I have nothing against smaller deals made by other companies. Perhaps Mindset will find this bid from Otsuka Pharma to be compatible with THEIR strategy, and accept it. But I'm certain you can see the difference between a 90 million dollar acquisition bid, and a 7 BILLION dollar one. That's the difference between this Otsuka bid and the successful bid Jazz Pharmaceuticals made to acquire GW Pharma. The board of Incannex rightly consider their current lead asset, IHL-42x, to be heading towards pivotal trial success. The profile and TAM of the drug lead us to expect it will be a lot more valuable than GW Pharma's Epidiolex was. It doesn't make much sense for Incannex to seriously consider any early bids considering the confidence they have in their asset, and the much higher value it should have as more trial data comes in from the pivotal trials.
As for our psychedelic arm, you have to look at the details, which your post shows no evidence of. What are the nature of the Mindset assets Otsuka is interested in? How might they fit into their specific strategy (possibly in ways that Incannex's do not). I'd like to see you at least grapple with these basic questions before putting it on others to explain things to you?
One obvious differentiator between various psychedelic assisted therapy candidate companies is whether the bare psilocybin will be used, or whether proprietary formulations are being developed. Neither path is superior in any absolute sense. While various proprietary formulations offering more tailored effectiveness on various fronts could give a company an edge, the other details of the therapy including therapy protocol, and ancillary tech such as virtual reality, might prove far more determinant of therapeutic success. Straight up psilocin works. Some companies have opted to base their IP on factors surrounding the metaphorical wheel that they see does not need reinventing. Certainly, those experienced with these molecules will tell you setting and mindset are the determinant factors for outcome: it is not a strange position to take that going down a chemical rabbit hole at this early stage in the industry might be missing more important basic aspects of the protocols that need to be optimized. In fact, collecting IP portfolios of dozens of psilocin spinoffs could be seen as a gimicky shotgun approach that may or may not yield commercial success at some time in the future if it is later determined these spinoffs actually bring something of sufficient therapeutic value to the table during trials.
Incannex has made noises about potential work on a proprietary chemical formulation, but compared to some other companies, this has not been their main focus and it is entirely possible that a company like Otsuka is specifically interested in offshoots of psilocin. If so, more power to them. I like Incannex's strategy to aim for early-mover advantage with proving efficacy for this specific GAD indication, whilst simultaneously building a clinics business designed and backed by some of the best in the industry. FDA approval for GAD, and real world results in their clinics will probably cement a solid position in this nascent industry faster than if they were to sink too many resources into trying to improve upon the psychoactive compound nature has provided. We're at the beginning: do you iterate the carburator of the first car ever built a thousands times before releasing it, or do you get something to market that gets people from A to B, build a name for yourself in the process, and iterate your designs as you grow? If you want to be Ford, I know what makes more sense to me but the industry has many different takes on what strategy to adopt, and I have no idea what Otsuka believes belongs in their portfolio of programs.
Personally, I hope Incannex does not encourage or seek to accept any early bids on their Psi-GAD program. Selling that asset now would be contrary to their strategy to synergise that asset with their own clinics business and so penetrate this early market on both fronts, generating a diversified set of revenue streams. Being the first company to treat GAD with psilocybin is a milestone that can make this company in the psychedelic space and provide the launchpad for far-reaching growth of their clinics business and treatment revenues. Why sell that short for a price in the tens of millions? Have you seen the estimates of what the psychedelic assisted therapy space will be worth in Australia alone?
IHL Price at posting:
8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
