morning punters - I grabbed a copy of a post rom the BAY forum last night, its a collection of posts by Benjamin Cox, the formed CEO and co-founder of BAY, he has massive knowledge of the tenements we are exploring and shows why this really will become a Tier 1 resource and is worth billions for those bothered to stay the course - really well worth a read. The links are to the CEO.CA site.
You need 1%+ at depth at Storm to have a deep deposit, and I would think 2% is the real target. https://ceo.ca/bay?cd42aadd101b
So 15 meters of 1% would be massive; they have a 100km strike and need the recipe, and if they have that dialed in, they can cherry-pick the strike next summer. The size of the pod question can't be answered this year, but grade at depth can be answered.If they hit 2%+, if I were a tier-one major, I would take out Aston Bay this winter for the real option. We have had 3 copper discoveries since 2005, so this is a rare event, https://ceo.ca/bay?6b82a9abbf28
If they were done, AW1 share price would move. If they have a confirmed 200-300 meter deep zone with length and geophysics, AW1 is not worth $80m USD, they are worth $500m+ USD. If the assays are crap they are not worth $80m USD. https://ceo.ca/bay?0670a7d1e7bf
a 20% stake in a tier one copper asset is worth $200-600m, and everyone from BHP/south32/Anglo would want BAY as a toehold https://ceo.ca/bay?ca83e3f01f62
My model still has a $2-600m USD value on a 20% stake, depending on size, grade, tonnage, and what things are trading for. No one who is sovereign wants to operate. https://ceo.ca/bay?9670a762d5c2
My point is when I say it is $200-600m in value I am not blowing smoke, I know what bids are looking like for high grade copper assets, and I know exactly what my lords and masters want. I don't work for them, but they are the major shareholder of my boss. https://ceo.ca/bay?2ccc568dcd59
So bay structured right sells for $4-600m to a tier one firm who wants the passive stake, (USD). https://ceo.ca/bay?f97e6736b263
If these assays come back strong, there is no way this asset does not trade as a whole for $1b+. I spent a lot of last night mapping the possible outcomes, and I am super glad I still have a bunch of paper. This is precisely what the majors are looking for, and 20% of this is exactly what the Saudis and the other Middle East players are looking for. The weird bit is that nothing comparable has sold in the last ten years in Copper. Nada. To get material bids, we need 6 mt of contained copper (Tier two majors), but 10x that could be possible (BHP/VALE/ANGLO/RIO/Glencore); this could be a 2-3 bt district @ 2%. If the model shows that it is possible, the majors will come knocking and take out Bay first; the question for me is whether Bay will build the SWF relationships to maximize the bid value.100,000 tpd mine would be massive with these grades. https://ceo.ca/bay?0600780796db
That requires 20 years or 700 mt at 2%, which if this is district scale should be very possible. that is a sheet 1000 by 12000 by 20 meters, and if the grade is higher the sheet gets smaller quite quickly. https://ceo.ca/bay?f51440479f8d
$100m-$1b USD is the range of rational valuations for BAY if the intersections hit, to get the $1b number we need some good chess playing, and some Loki in the game. https://ceo.ca/bay?5a65b715fea0
The district is vast; the scale is enormous if the geophysics work and the discovery recipe is unpacked. We either end up with a Sudbury-style mining area or a Poland-style; owning 100% of the district is a must-have for tier-one majors. The question is how the sed hosted bodies tie together and how large the lenses are; if they are 100mt lenses, it is a very different operator than if they are 5mt each. But frozen Underground is an excellent place to work, but tier-one majors want a 50kt/d minimum volume; others are more open. I am not in a rush to sell stock, I will offload some at some point to guarantee a retirement, but I am ok with the risk-reward here. I hold with my prior that this is a $0.50-$5 stock, https://ceo.ca/bay?a664c1b35149
There is a lag, its real between pictures and assays, if the pictures come back with solid assays, then 23 cents is cheap, if they come back with crap assays than 23 cents is expensive. https://ceo.ca/bay?c949e7b3847e
Knowing the limits of their testing is far more important than getting everything right. Heck, if they can identify and explain why some anomalies work and others don't, then it is a billion-dollar + asset; if they play it safe and can't show what works/does not, they are worth a fraction of that. They have 100km of strike, and even Pods can be worth billions. The ore bodies will dip, swell, move, shift, blend, and conform, but my bet is there will be some pods that are almost pure mineral, and those pods do not need a lot of tonnage to make a huge discovery.
AW1 Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)