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IVZ

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6.8¢ invictus energy ltd

Ann: Securities Placement Capacity Update, page-103

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Kotlass

666 Posts.

205

09/09/23

15:34

Post #: 69796546
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Originally posted by Davy Boy: ↑

The numbers are impossible to square away though IMO.
For example IVZ flew in 2 tools from Norway that they couldn't get to work. SM stated they chartered a flight to shift equipment that was supposed to weigh 1000kg but weighed 1500kg and the plane couldn't carry it.
Christ knows what those 2 examples cost....let alone all the extra mud and fixing all the things BH screwed up, transport ect ect.
There are no mobilisation costs. What would they be 5 million? SM said that mobilisation cost was ~ 18 months of warm stacking.
How much quicker will they drill with normal mud weights and upgraded mud system? Should be heaps quicker I would have thought.
How much gear have we got left over from the first drill, a fair bit I would say.
My point is its impossible to say what this drill will cost.
I suspect that the vast majority has already been expensed.
IMO it should be well under 20 million even with the extra sampling tools.

SM should give us what the budget is but I suspect the real issue is not the drill but what happens after drilling.
With nothing on the radar for best part of 4-5 months the chances of raising at a good price are zero. I personally think not flow testing quickly is a massive mistake. A early flow test would have held the markets interest and probably allowed a decent CR between the drill and flow test.

I'm not concerned that there is any blow back from cocking up the issue what I am concerned about is the company secretary has made multiple cock ups. Its time he was moved on IMO.

I think the selling of the last week is someone in the know and I'd bet a $1 that there are a few here that already know a placement is coming.

One thing I really don't get from IVZ is this arbitrary date of the 16Th. Where did that come from?? Also its a bit misleading. IVZ state that they won't issue any shares until after the 16th that does not mean they won't call a placement with shares to be issued on the 17th. Its weird.

Fact is MK1 would have blown the budget big time.
For starters all the issues behind the scenes would have cost big $$$ chartering flights to shift tools from Norway would have cost heaps on their own.
You then have to factor in rig time.
The well spud on 24th September and as near as I can tell finished ~ 3 Jan. About 15 weeks or 105 days.
There is no doubt that Mk1 + ST cost about the full budget of both wells IMO.

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You seem to think that the cost blowout that eventuated during the MK1 drill can't repeat itself in MK2.

How can you be so sure? The problems in MK1 don't have to repeat themselves. Yes, they have taken steps to avert them. Other problems could arise. It's not plug and play. Each drill is always different and problems do arise. You just have to hope they are not complex or major issues.

For this reason, it is prudent to hold enough cash for both the drill and contigencies that may arise.

IVZ Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 6.8¢		Change -0.001(1.45%)		Mkt cap ! $103.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.1¢	7.1¢	6.8¢	$14.59K	209.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	87754	6.8¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.9¢	150002	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	87754	0.068
2	194997	0.067
4	400461	0.066
6	709935	0.065
3	532500	0.064

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.069	150000	1
0.072	405000	2
0.073	370281	3
0.074	453798	2
0.075	1381014	2

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Ann: Securities Placement Capacity Update, page-103

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