PYC could be worth US$38b in a deal or potentially $11/share by year 2030
Rohan Hockings spoke at the Venture& Capital 2023: Singapore Investment Conference on 31.08.2023 (watch video)(full set of slides)
At 5:00:04 Rohan said,
"A drug approved in the U.S about six months ago for an indication that you have likely also never heard of. The company was called Reata Pharmaceuticals and the indication that they were pursuing was a disease called Friedreich Ataxia (watch video). And the interesting thing about the Reata story is that what happened around one month ago is that Reata themselves were acquired by a company that you probably have heard of called Biogen for 7.2 billion US dollars in cash."
My analysis
WithUS7.2b, @ 0.6374 USD conversion rate, it is A$11.296b, or A$3 per share. Warren Huff, Reata Pharma CEO estimated a Global Market Size of US$1.5b (watch video).
Based on Rohan Hockings’ presentation slide 6, PYC’s first 3 drugs would have a combined Market Size of US$8b. If a deal comes along, it’s got to be 5.33x or US$38.4bor A$16 per share. No wonder a few brokers have been massively accumulating this share in stealth by suppressing the SP at around 6c. They are looking at a potential profit of 266X !!!
Put it plainly, if you buy 1M shares @ 6c for $60k today, you might be rewarded with $11M when a deal comes, if not sooner, most likely by year 2030. The calculation is as follows.
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| Shares Issued | 3,732,867,135 |
| USD Conv | 0.64 |
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| 1 |
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| 2 |
| Drug# 1 | Drug# 2 | Drug# 3 | Annual Revenue | Running Total | Value |
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| 3 | Year | RP-11 | ADOA | Phelan-McDermid Syndrome | (US $ Billions) | (US $ Billions) | Per Share
(A$) |
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| 4 | 2023 | Phase 1 | IND | Pre-Clinical |
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| 5 | 2024 | Phase 2 | Phase 1 | IND |
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| 6 | 2025 | Phase 3 | Phase 2 | Phase 1 |
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| 7 | 2026 | 1 | Phase 3 | Phase 2 | 1 | 1 | $0.42 |
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| 8 | 2027 | 1 | 2 | Phase 3 | 3 | 4 | $1.67 |
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| 9 | 2028 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | $5.02 |
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| 10 | 2029 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 | $8.37 |
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| 11 | 2030 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 28 | $11.72 |
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PYC has tested the drug with“a human eyeball in a dish”…
It has fundamentally tiltedthe odds in our favour of a successful market entry!
At 5:05:57 Rohan said,
"You can actually in these monogenic diseases, these rare diseases, get an insight into what's going to happen before you get into a human in the clinical trial. And this is a technology that has become available in the last 10 years where you can take a skin sample from a patient who has the disease that you're interested in, send it backwards into a induced pluripotent state. You can create a stem cell from that patient skin sample that has the genetic mutation that you are interested in fixing. And you can grow from that stem cell every cell type that exists in the human body. And so for us this is a blinding eye disease that we're interested in, we can make ourselves a human eyeball in a dish that has the genetic mutation and the disease phenotype that we're interested in correcting. So we can actually assess whether or not our drug is going to work before we get into human clinical trials. And in doing those three things you can fundamentally tilt the odds in your favour of a successful market entry."
Happy trading - DYOR
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