trading scenarios 4 the week starting 2 day

Watch for the options to open or trade higher over the next few days to a week for an indication of a large play about to unfold on the heads. The CCCO, 5c options , with expiry in 2013, have been trading generally about 3c below the heads, or at a 2c premium to the conversion price. I've got 2 slabs of the options in two of three portfolios I trade .

The current Total Market Depth ratios indicate today could shape up as a better day than yesterday with 16m more on the TMD buy side than the sell.
Early yesterday, there was an even balance and at worst, about 6m more on the TMD sell side from memory. The current ratio's suggest that is less likely today. What I thought would evolve yesterday did apart from two things, the total volume traded was higher than I expected and the vwap was lower. There's still currently too many shares listed for sale for it to push up through 8.2c on it's way to the half cent increments and 10 to 14c levels.

After watching yesterdays trading data, a drop below 10m on the TMD sell side and a rise on the TMD buy side above 50m, probably won't happen today but possibly over the next week. I think it will move quickly through the 8.5c to 10c levels when the TMD ratios get to where I suspect they might. When it's pushing into the 10c to 12c levels I think there will probably be some rapid fluctuations between there and 9c and back a few times before it settles at wherever it will based on how much buying comes from the instos' and larger privateers. This is all without the "takeover factor" of course. If one of the mid to large cap coal plays start sniffing around, throw this post out the window, lol.
They won't be listing there buy orders so watch for the orders in the 3m size vicinity coming in from off screen over the next week.
For those who want to still get in, the options will provide a better exposure % wise to heads appreciation. Forget trying to buy in on the heads below 6c, it just won't happen after the large valuation added to CCC by the acquisition. The share purchase plans are done and dusted, time to move on, if you haven't got exposure to the SPP already, it's too late. Best bet, is the CCCO but they have some buyers starting to line up already with an hour before open but they still offer better leverage than the heads.
The surplus buy side has increased another 4m while I've been typing this post. Yes, today shaping as a much better day than yesterday. It should have opened above the previous high of 8.2c so the fact it didn't, tells us how big the number of DT's there were wanting to trade there position and probably got in and out a few times yesterday.
As I post this, the TMD is 40.8m to 21.4m.
Trading range forecast today, 7.1c to 8c. There's currently 17.7m shares on the buy side at 7.1c or higher and 15.5m on the sell side at 8c or lower.
Whatever the heads do, the options are value at 3c under whatever the heads are trading at.
Good luck today and if you can afford to hold, do so. There's a "lot" left in the share price yet IMHO.