A couple of questions about Vidalia , if I may for your views please Proga .
1) Initial 11.25ktpa Plant . Construction due for completion this Quarter ---with Production to start from end September ( with some minor delays possible/probable because of delays in delivery and installation of Plant operating materials ?) .
Then there is the "ramp up period "of 18 months , which Syrah has projected to be running at full production capacity .
Q . Is that 18 months , due to Syrah electing to bring Production on line gradually , so as to ensure possible start up nuances are ironed out ...or is that period due to Agreement with Offtakers ( Tesla ) to meet a particular scheduling , possible due to Ev Battery factory builds /extensions --or perhaps both ?
Relevance to Q ...is both Offtake cash flow implications ( the speed of which larger orders happen , enhances cash flow ) ...and secondly , the "marketing " value of SYRAH being able to confirm to the market in general / Offtake suitors / DOE ...that the Plant is/has achieved Commercial Operational scale .
2) As regards Syrah Board announcing that it has made the FID to expand Vidalia to 45 ktpa ( a decision that , subject to Offtake Agreements / Financing , that we ASSUME will happen , and hopefully no later than within the next two Quarters ?Q . When that FID does push "go" ....time frame to build and start operation of the Plant which adds 3 times the dimensions of the 11.25ktpa Plant .Assuming that Syrah has templated the original design Plant plan successfully .... and already has the contacts for any/all the pre-ordering necessary , I am guessing a TWO YEAR time frame to Plant build completion would be likely .So a best case scenario . would be end of 2025 ..and then a similar 18 months ramp up to operating at full 45tkpa capacity .ie second half , 2027 ??
After scanning the growth of the EV Battery giga factories under current build or about to start , in the USA / EUROPE/ASIA ...even the 45ktpa capacity is going to fall way short of demand --as the current status would suggest . Perhaps this further suggests ,,,that subject to Vidalia reaching the goal of the Vidalia 11.25ktpa Plant being completed /started up / thye ramping up ....A SECOND SYRAH PLANT has to be committed to , most likely in a JV with a major Car Manufacturer , or Battery Manufacturer ???
These questions ....may or may not be even definatively answerable by Shaun Verner and the Board atm ---but just getting some thoughts about the "bigger picture "views , before committing to adding any more SYR shares at these prices ...which still remain in the vice grip hold of the shorters !
Explanations may have been laid out or indicated in recebt Syrah updates , and I could have missed them .
Any views appreciated
(20min delay)