Yeah well , I never had any to loose for you man so not to worry.....
You clearly don't even know what an NPV is. But heads up , its NOT something that is a right of passage for Producers only . In fact its done largely BEFORE a project is producing because it is an ECONOMIC ' ....' Definitive ' study which is normally used in the same fashion as a BFS to attract investment and finance and to model the financial and economic outcomes over a set period of time. .
And mate , I've done that many NPV studies over my lifetime , I could probably do them in my sleep.
And that is why I said NPV for ' Companies ' in the lithium space . I did NOT mention specifically producers in isolation ( see attached post ) - That's what you said in reply which is irrelevant because an NPV is a cash flow analysis evaluation used more often for a Company' or project in its earlier stages , and usually ahead of them coming into production or producing whatever it is a project is being worked up for. ..... ie the benefit , the tax , the earning , the NPV return over the specified time period using the conservative and acceptable discount rate applicable to the broader economic expectations.
So in Sayona's case , it was put out after the capital costs which were treated as ' Sunk ' , and therefore it was a fairly mute point given the refurbishment costs as well were fairly known and accurate up until almost the exact moment Production began.
So the proof of course now will be whether we can achieve anywhere near the forecast figures put forward in this NPV.
So in fact BOTH the examples of Frontier and Critical Minerals are equally applicable in the context of my intent and phrasing because that is what they are saying they are going to produce when they complete their project. Yes they are further away from actual BUILD , but the figures are still applicable to what they think they can achieve to where the market is prepared to award them this figure in their valuation.
But since you obviously NOT prepared or moreover don't know how to do the research yourself , another great example would be Sigma Lithium. Because they too are trading well below their stated NPV valuations which have only just been updated as of June 2023 as follows :-
Sigma Lithium's Economic Evaluations.
Phase 1. - 38.2% below its latest published PEA
Phase 2 & 3. - 63.25% below its stated and latest re-stated figures from June 2023
And,
Phase 1 , 2 & 3 - A massive 76.96% below it modeled NPV for all 3 phases
So this compares to Sayona's NAL project which is trading down 53.2% compared to its SC6 %.....or what's really 5.4 % now concentrate only NPV of approximately A$2.2 billion.
So working back the Phase 1 & 2 figures for Sigma' operations , which would be roughly equivalent , you'd have a current discount applied to their project of 63.25% to their current market capitalisation as of yesterday ( 12th September 2023 ) ....which is 10% more of a discount than Sayona.
keep in mind that Sigma was using USD $5,100 / t for its concentrate forecast and USD$55,900 / t as its benchmark hydroxide forecast pricing.
Even at Sigma's peak of approximately C$6 billion market cap on May 17 2023 , it was trading down some 15% to its Phase1. NPV which if applied to Sayona would be A$1.870 billion or 18.75 cents per share.
And there is also the fact that when Sigma was at its peak market capitalization , a fair bit of this value could have been a result of the market speculation circulating of M&A activity towards it. So that would mean their discount to NPV would probably have been even greater.
So it would seem you are the one who shouldn't be going off with unsupported information and misleading hot copper members . Especially when you don't actually know what you're talking about and are completely misinformed.
Don't even bother replying pal because I won't be responding to anyone here anymore. I just wanted to set the record straight that
a.)I never said an NPV was specific to a producer ( you did ) , and
b.) you now have further evidence that there are indeed other
COMPANIESin the lithium space who are trading below their stated economic NPV calculations.
Yeah so to use your own words .....Mate
" its not cool when you resort to making stuff up to suit your narrative " .......
(20min delay)